FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: September 5, 2026

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Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Angels unexpectedly announced that longtime owner Arte Moreno had agreed to sell the organization to Stan Kroenke, the icositetra-billionaire owner of the Los Angeles Rams of the NFL, the Denver Nuggets of the NBA, the Colorado Avalanche of the NHL, the Colorado Rapids of MLS, the Colorado Mammoth of the National Lacrosse League, and Arsenal Football Club, both the men’s team of the English Premier League and the women’s team of the Super League. The deal is reportedly for $4 billion, a record price for the sale of a controlling stake in an MLB franchise, surpassing the $3.9 billion sale of the San Diego Padres to Kwanza Jones and José E. Feliciano earlier this summer.

Forbes estimates Kroenke’s net worth to be $24.3 billion, making him the new wealthiest MLB owner, ahead of Steve Cohen, who’s worth about $23 billion. Ben Clemens wrote about the sale on Wednesday, and I’d encourage you to check it out for everything that you need to know about the Angels under Moreno and the ever-increasing values of MLB franchises. That second part is what I want to stress, especially as it pertains to the seemingly inevitable lockout coming this offseason. Rob Manfred and the 30 team owners are going to push for a salary cap, and to support their case, many of them will both cite the need for competitive balance and claim that baseball is a bad business. When they do, think back on the two record-setting sales from this year and understand the real reason why management has shut down the sport. But let’s not get too caught up in the doom and gloom right now, because the upshot of the sale is the Angels’ future looks a whole lot more promising under Kroenke than it did under Moreno.

That’s the last we’ll talk about the business of baseball today. Instead, in this week’s mailbag, we’ll answer your questions about teams that finished the season below .500 with a positive run differential, the single-game feat most correlated with career success, the pitchers who had the longest careers while pitching their first and last games on the same field, and the ideal hot dog per game ratio. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.

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As Detroit’s ship continues to sink, it’s looking possible that the team will finish with 90 losses this season. Yet the Tigers maintain a strong run differential, and could still end the season in the black. What is the worst win percentage achieved by a team with a positive run differential? And to also ask the inverse: What’s the best win percentage by a team with a negative run differential? Thanks! — LMOTFOTE

I really enjoyed researching this question, but I spent way too much time digging into the first part of it, so I decided to break up my answer across two weeks, one for each part. I’ll answer the first part today and then tackle the inverse in next week’s mailbag.

From 1901 to 2025, 72 teams finished the season with a losing record and a positive run differential. The worst of those teams was the 1972 Giants, who went 69-86 for a .445 winning percentage while scoring 0.1 more runs than they allowed per game. Like the Tigers this year, those Giants were something of a disappointment.

In 1971, the Giants made the playoffs for the first time since their heartbreaking seven-game World Series loss to the Yankees in 1962, and entering 1972, there was some hope that San Francisco could build on the momentum from the year before. But Willie McCovey got hurt just four games into the 1972 season, and with both the Giants and Willie Mays, now in his age-41 season, struggling over the first few weeks, San Francisco traded the franchise icon to the Mets. McCovey didn’t return until early June, by which point the Giants were 17-31; they lost their first eight games with Stretch back in the lineup before finally winning the second game of a doubleheader against the Cubs on June 11. At the end of that day, with a record of 18-39 (.316), the Giants had a per game run differential of -0.948. After that point, the Giants went 51-47 (.520) with a per game run differential of 0.683.

You’ll notice that the Giants played only 155 games that year. That’s because a 13-day player’s strike delayed the start of the season, and the previously scheduled games were not made up.

In your question, you mentioned 90 losses as a possibility for the Tigers. Well, if they did reach the 90-loss threshold, they would become the new worst team to finish with a positive run differential in a full-length season. The current club with that designation is the 2001 Rockies, who went 73-89 (.451) while scoring 0.105 more runs per game than they allowed.

You’ll remember that during the 2000-2001 offseason, the Rockies went all-in to bolster their pitching staff. First, they signed veteran left-handed starter Denny Neagle to a five-year, $51 million contract before famously handing lefty Mike Hampton an eight-year, $121 million deal — which at the time was the largest contract in major league history — to be their ace. Neither pitcher lived up to the billing. Hampton regressed from 4.6 WAR, a 3.14 ERA (71 ERA-), and a 3.82 FIP (83 FIP-) across 217 2/3 innings in 2000 with the Mets to 1.9 WAR, a 5.41 ERA (104 ERA-), and a 5.21 FIP (107 FIP-) over 203 innings in 2001. Neagle’s peripherals improved some from 2000, but his ERA ballooned from 4.52 (94 ERA-) to 5.38 (103 ERA-) in 170 2/3 innings. Overall, Rockies pitchers dropped from 16.4 WAR (12th in the majors) in 2000 to 10.4 WAR (21st) in 2001. They allowed 5.593 runs per game in 2001, down from 5.537.

Interestingly, though, Colorado’s bigger problem might’ve been its decline on offense. In 2000, the Rockies led the National League with 968 runs scored, for a per game average of 5.975; the next season, they still led the NL, but with 923 runs and 5.698 per game. That difference of 0.333 runs in scoring margin seems to have factored into the Rockies’ losing nine more games in 2001 than they did the year before.

Here’s a sortable table of the complete 72-team list:

Losing Record, Positive Run Differential

Year	Team	Wins	Losses	Win Pct.	Run Diff/G
1972	SFG	69	86	.445	0.1
2001	COL	73	89	.451	0.1
1953	NYG	70	84	.455	0.1
1980	STL	74	88	.457	0.2
1918	CWS	57	67	.460	0.1
2009	TOR	75	87	.463	0.2
1984	PIT	75	87	.463	0.3
1981	CAL	51	59	.464	0.2
1921	DET	71	82	.464	0.1
1954	STL	72	82	.468	0.1
1932	NYG	72	82	.468	0.3
1978	MON	76	86	.469	0.1
1994	PHI	54	61	.470	0.2
1973	ATL	76	85	.472	0.2
1967	BAL	76	85	.472	0.4
1949	NYG	73	81	.474	0.3
1915	PIT	73	81	.474	0.2
2025	TBR	77	85	.475	0.2
1983	TEX	77	85	.475	0.2
1903	DET	65	71	.478	0.2
1995	NYM	69	75	.479	0.3
2022	MIN	78	84	.481	0.1
2006	CLE	78	84	.481	0.5
2004	BAL	78	84	.481	0.1
1999	BAL	78	84	.481	0.2
1989	LAD	77	83	.481	0.1
1987	BOS	78	84	.481	0.1
1959	CIN	74	80	.481	0.1
1936	BOS	74	80	.481	0.1
1919	BOS	66	71	.482	0.1
2020	HOU	29	31	.483	0.1
1943	CHC	74	79	.484	0.2
1961	PIT	75	79	.487	0.1
1955	CIN	75	79	.487	0.5
1954	PHI	75	79	.487	0.3
1944	CHC	75	79	.487	0.2
1941	CLE	75	79	.487	0.1
1940	CHC	75	79	.487	0.3
1928	WSH	75	79	.487	0.1
1908	BOS	75	79	.487	0.3
2021	SDP	79	83	.488	0.1
2014	NYM	79	83	.488	0.1
2011	CIN	79	83	.488	0.1
2006	ATL	79	83	.488	0.3
1998	BAL	79	83	.488	0.2
1979	LAD	79	83	.488	0.1
1971	CWS	79	83	.488	0.1
1971	HOU	79	83	.488	0.1
1968	MIN	79	83	.488	0.1
1964	MIN	79	83	.488	0.4
1918	NYY	60	63	.488	0.1
1995	BAL	71	73	.493	0.4
1934	PIT	74	76	.493	0.1
1919	BRO	69	71	.493	0.1
2006	TEX	80	82	.494	0.3
2005	TOR	80	82	.494	0.4
2001	TOR	80	82	.494	0.1
1984	HOU	80	82	.494	0.4
1973	NYY	80	82	.494	0.2
1973	PIT	80	82	.494	0.1
1972	KCR	76	78	.494	0.2
1968	PIT	80	82	.494	0.3
1964	LAD	80	82	.494	0.3
1964	PIT	80	82	.494	0.2
1958	CIN	76	78	.494	0.5
1952	BOS	76	78	.494	0.1
1951	BSB	76	78	.494	0.4
1923	BRO	76	78	.494	0.1
1902	CHC	68	69	.496	0.3
1965	STL	80	81	.497	0.2
1920	SLB	76	77	.497	0.2
1959	BOS	75	79	.587	0.2

Source: Baseball Reference

Blue = Shortened Season

Two initial things stand out. First, including the 1972 Giants, 11 of the teams played in a season shortened either by the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), labor disputes (1994-95, 1981, 1972), or World War I (1918-19).

Second, the Pirates lead the way with seven losing seasons with a positive run differential; the Red Sox and Orioles have six such seasons, the second most for any team, though one of Baltimore’s came while the franchise was still the St. Louis Browns.

There have been 13 different seasons in which multiple teams finished with a losing record while posting a positive run differential. Three of those seasons featured three such teams (2006, 1973, 1964). Twice, in 1995 and 1954, both teams played in the National League, while only once, in 1918, were both from the American League.

Relatedly, two of the three losing, positive-scoring teams in 1964 met in the World Series the following year, when the Dodgers beat the Twins in seven games. The 1964 Dodgers were the only team whose losing season with a positive run differential was sandwiched between two World Series titles. Two other teams above won the pennant in both the season directly before and directly after they finished below .500 with a positive run differential: the 2020 Astros, who lost the World Series in both 2019 and 2021 before winning in 2022, and the 1918 White Sox, who won the 1917 World Series and then, of course, intentionally lost in 1919. Including the three clubs just mentioned, 17 of the teams won the pennant either the year before or the year after they lost more games than they won and scored more runs than they allowed.

Four of these teams (2020 HOU, 1994 PHI, 1987 BOS, 1979 LAD) lost the previous year’s World Series, while seven of them (1989 LAD, 1967 BAL, 1965 STL, 1964 LAD, 1961 PIT, 1919 BOS, 1918 CWS) finished with a losing record and a positive run differential the year after winning the World Series. I don’t think we can chalk any of this up to the proverbial World Series or pennant-winning hangover, except maybe the 1987 Red Sox, given the circumstances of Boston’s loss in 1986. Rather, this feels more like regression to the mean than anything else, though it’s still remarkable that four teams in the 1960s finished below .500 with a positive run differential the year after they won the World Series.

Of the nine teams to win the pennant in the year after they had a losing record and a positive run differential, only three of them won the World Series. The New York Giants did it twice, first when they beat Washington in the 1933 World Series, and then again when they swept Cleveland in 1954. The other team to do it is the aforementioned 1965 Dodgers.

Four different franchises had three losing, positive-scoring seasons during a span of five years: the Cubs in the 1940s, the Reds in the 1950s, the Pirates in the 1960s, and the Orioles in the 1990s. Pittsburgh is the only member of the quartet that didn’t have consecutive such seasons.

Let’s conclude by returning to the inspiration for this question. The 2026 Tigers entered play Friday with a record of 64-75 (.460) and a per game run differential of 0.34. They had both the worst record for a team with a positive run differential and the best run differential for a team with a losing record. However, as the previous sentence suggests, Detroit isn’t the only team having a losing, positive-scoring season this year. The Pirates, going for their eighth such season in franchise history, were 69-72 (.489) with a 0.20 per game run differential heading into their weekend series against the Angels. Meanwhile, the Nationals began Friday with a record of 67-75 (.472) and a per game run differential of 0.10.

As of Friday afternoon, our Playoff Odds projected the Tigers to finish the season with between 86 and 87 wins, which would put their winning percentage at either .469 or .463. Only three or four more losses would stand between them and history.

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Hi FanGraphs Staff,

Thank you for all that you do! Here’s my question:

Two weeks ago, Michael Baumann did a great dive into career outcomes for players who have hit three home runs in a game. It got me wondering: What single-game feat is most closely correlated with career success? Three-plus home runs? The cycle? Ten-plus RBI? On the pitching side, is it a perfect game? An immaculate inning? Fifteen-plus strikeouts?

Thank you!
-Thomas

Michael Baumann: I mean, it’s 20 strikeouts in a game. It’s been done six times: by Roger Clemens (twice), Randy Johnson, Max Scherzer, Kerry Wood, and Tom Cheney, who struck out 21 Orioles in 16 innings in 1962. So that’s… two of the three or four best pitchers of my lifetime (Clemens and Johnson), another inner-circle Hall of Famer (Scherzer), a guy who was on track to be an inner-circle Hall of Famer before he got hurt, and still managed to hang on until his mid-30s as an All-Star closer (Wood). The only guy who doesn’t fit is the bad guy from True Grit.

Still, that’s an average of three Cy Youngs for each of the five pitchers to strike out 20 or more in a game.

Lowering the strikeout threshold to 19 might make the list even more impressive. That gets you two more Randy Johnson games, plus Nolan Ryan (four times), Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton (who picked a runner off during his 19-strikeout game, which always tickled me), David Cone, and Luis Tiant.

Seaver, like Clemens and Johnson, has a case for greatest-of-all-time status, depending on what games you want to play with timeline adjustment. Carlton is a half-step behind him. Nolan Ryan is Nolan Ryan, and Tiant and Cone are two of the best pitchers ever outside of the Hall of Fame. The median career for a pitcher with at least one 19-strikeout game is somewhere between Scherzer and Ryan.

That said, part of the reason I liked the Josua Báez three-homer question is that way more than 10 guys have hit three homers in a game. It’s an impressive enough achievement — first game of the player’s career or not — that it attracts notice, but it’s attainable enough that not only all-time greats do it.

So I want to focus on single-game achievements that occur with similar frequency to a three-homer game: Since 1901, there have been 703 three-homer games by 496 different players in AL/NL play.

There are basically only two single-game accomplishments that people make a big deal about for position players: four home runs and the cycle. So I tried to find a few other single-game milestones that have been achieved anywhere between several dozen and a few hundred times: the cycle, six-hit games, seven times on base (including errors), seven or more RBI, and 13 or more total bases.

I found the median career stats for various categories of interest, though for reasons of methodological expediency, I set a minimum of 500 career plate appearances to be included in said median. For instance, 276 players have hit for the cycle a total of 309 times since 1901, but a few are not included in these stats because they didn’t play long enough. I don’t think it matters that much — this mailbag isn’t peer reviewed or anything — but it’s worth mentioning.

Median Career Stats for Hitters With Certain Achievements

Achievement	Times Accomplished	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
Cycle	309	1465	6028	130	768	720	.279	.345	.439	111	25.7
Six Hits	122	1496	6033	86	737	684	.282	.352	.417	108	25.4
7 TOB w/ROE	89	1674	6913	96	927	784	.285	.364	.420	114	30.9
7+ RBI	702	1377	5272	162	661	687	.271	.341	.446	112	21.2
13+ TB	337	1495	5939	201	756	768	.274	.345	.460	115	26.8

min. 500 career PA

The seven-times-on-base club had the best career WAR and the most career plate appearances, but there are also fewer players in that category than the other four. But despite having larger membership, the two power hitting categories — RBI and total bases — seem to augur equivalent offensive prosperity, if not better.

There’s probably some selection bias here, because you don’t get a chance to drive in seven runs unless you’re hitting in the middle of the order, but it also jives with what I expected. Total bases for hitters are kind of like strikeouts for pitchers; there’s a limit to how many of them you can compile through luck.

All five of these categories ended up with pretty similar median stats to the three-homer club, so maybe it’s the case that any random selection of a few hundred long-term big leaguers will put up a 110 wRC+ and between 20 and 30 WAR on average.

I also checked in on a few single-game pitching milestones: complete-game no-hitters, 14 or more strikeouts in a game, and starts with a game score of 90 or more. As you can see, I have an equivalent career cutoff (200 innings) in these median figures as well.

Median Career Stats for Pitchers With Certain Achievements

Achievement	Times Accomplished	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WAR
No-Hitter	287	115	102	3	335	261	1910 2/3	5.21	3.01	3.54	23.9
14+ SO	621	120	101	2	354	285	2017 1/3	6.93	3.06	3.63	28.6
90+ GS	1860	99	91	4	302	224	1617	5.24	2.92	3.66	19.4

min. 200 career IP

I got sucked in by the allure of round numbers for the game score category; 835 pitchers have registered a 90 at least once in their careers. That’s more than 21% of all pitchers who have made a start in the past 126 seasons.

Even accounting for differences in population size, the 14-strikeout cohort outperforms the other two. I don’t think that should surprise anyone; if you care enough about baseball to subscribe to FanGraphs and read this mailbag devoted to abstruse trivia like this, you know that no-hitters can be fluky. You can’t fake punchouts. Well, Tom Cheney did; he’s actually 13th from the bottom of the career WAR leaderboard for pitchers with a 14-strikeout game. But otherwise, it’s tough.

Because I have the spreadsheet open, I was curious to see how many players have achieved all of the single-game feats I’d laid out. A total of 69 pitchers have thrown a no-hitter and had starts of both 14 strikeouts and a game score of 90 or better. That’s not surprising; I had fewer categories for pitchers, with more pitchers in each category, and there’s an obvious comorbidity between game score, recording strikeouts, and not allowing hits.

But only one position player has hit for the cycle, recorded six hits in a game, reached base seven times in a game, driven in seven runs in a game, and recorded 13 or more total bases in a game: Jimmie Foxx.

Foxx is not just a Hall of Famer, he’s in the 500-homer club. He’s one of just 20 position players in major league history to record 100 or more career WAR, and he’s 16th all-time in wRC+ among AL/NL players. It doesn’t take an all-time great to hit one of the milestones I checked, but apparently only a hitter like Foxx could do all five.

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Who was the pitcher with the longest career who pitched his first and last games on the same field? Also, who had the longest career who pitched his first and last games on the same field as the away team? — Nate from Albany

Jon Becker from Chicago: Hey there, Nate. Interesting question, and while it was a pretty easy one to answer, in looking at the two leaderboards here you’re going to notice a pretty clear skew toward careers that started and ended earlier. That’s for a few reasons, I think: fewer teams in the league means fewer ballparks, which means greater odds of ending in the same ballpark you started at; less team-switching back then also makes it likelier you’ll just end your career on the same team in the same ballpark; and ballparks back then lasted longer than they tend to now. Remember, the Braves only called Turner Field home for 20 seasons before moving on, and the Rangers were only at their open-air stadium a couple years longer than that before moving across the street to Globe Life Field.

Now for the lists. Here are the longest careers (by time between first and last game, not games pitched so as not to over-index for relievers) that started and ended at the same park. I also restricted to careers starting 1914 or later, as Retrosheet data is spotty before then:

Longest Pitching Careers Starting and Ending in the Same Park

Pitcher	Venue	First Game	Last Game	Career Days	Career Years
Red Ruffing	Fenway Park	5/31/24	9/15/47	8507	23.3
Joe Nuxhall	Crosley Field	6/10/44	10/2/66	8149	22.3
Tug McGraw	Shea Stadium	4/18/65	9/25/84	7100	19.4
Dick Coffman	Shibe Park	4/28/27	6/28/45	6636	18.2
Al Leiter	Yankee Stadium II	9/15/87	10/9/05	6599	18.1
Vern Law	Forbes Field	6/11/50	8/20/67	6279	17.2
Dizzy Dean	Sportsman’s Park III	9/28/30	9/28/47	6209	17.0
Lefty Grove	Shibe Park	4/14/25	9/28/41	6011	16.5
Randy Gumpert	Shibe Park	6/13/36	9/23/52	5946	16.3
Stu Miller	Wrigley Field	8/12/52	4/23/68	5733	15.7

And the top 10 for pitchers who were on the visiting team in both games:

Longest Pitching Careers Starting and Ending in the Same Park (Away)

Pitcher	Venue	First Game	Last Game	Career Days	Career Years
Stu Miller	Wrigley Field	8/12/52	4/23/68	5733	15.7
Joe Borowski	Comiskey Park II/U.S. Cellular Field	7/9/95	7/1/08	4741	13.0
Mike Bielecki	Busch Stadium II	9/14/84	8/16/97	4719	12.9
Jack Kramer	Briggs Stadium	4/25/39	8/22/51	4502	12.3
Paul Mirabella	Comiskey Park I	7/28/78	9/27/90	4444	12.2
Allyn Stout	Polo Grounds	5/16/31	6/27/43	4425	12.1
Damaso Marte	Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum	6/30/99	7/7/10	4025	11.-
Carl Erskine	Forbes Field	7/25/48	6/14/59	3976	10.9
Doug Linton	Fenway Park	8/3/92	4/18/03	3910	10.7
Jake Wade	Sportsman’s Park	4/22/36	9/13/46	3796	10.4

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What’s the ideal hot dog/game ratio? Any practical tips to pump those numbers up? — Chase

Dan Szymborski: There are several limitations to the ideal hot dog amount. First off is how many hot dogs you are physically capable of eating over the course of a game, which can vary from person to person. Then, you need consider whether there will be beers, which changes the dynamic. After all, the gastrocolic reflex is a big limiter, the physiological reflex that controls the motility of the lower gastrointestinal tract after eating. I’m operating under the notion that, like going over the price in the Showcase Showdown on The Price Is Right, if you have to poop at a baseball game, then you lose. There are also variations based on physical ailments.

But ignoring that, let’s imagine what an ideal maximizing of the hot dogs would look like. Very importantly, the pairing of a hot dog with a beer is a magical one, so that’s what we shall do. I think a stadium beer is exactly the right size to pair with a stadium hot dog, so this will be a 1:1 ratio.

The 1:1 ratio is also what Matt Martell did earlier this summer during the Hot Dog Jog before a Brooklyn Cyclones game — eat one dog, run one lap around the field, that is. Turns out, the peak number for that is four, though I would argue it should be zero.

Anyway, we don’t want so many beers that we can’t drive after the game, let alone for other negative effects of public drunkeness. So let’s assume that 15 minutes after a game, we want to be below the typical blood alcohol legal limit (0.08). Note that this does not apply in Utah, so you do not want to use these numbers at a Salt Lake Bees or Ogden Raptors game.

I’m assuming 16-ounce beers and a beer with an alcohol content of 5%. Each one of the beers will have 0.8 fluid ounces of alcohol that we have to clear. The average game is 2 hours and 36 minutes, so if we add 15 minutes to get to the car (if we’re driving), then we need to clear the alcohol that goes with the beer by 2 hours and 51 minutes after first pitch.

I’m also assuming that we have to stop eating and drinking after the seventh inning (if you bought a beer/hot dog at the last opportunity before the seventh-inning stretch, you can enjoy it throughout the bottom of the inning). And in this scenario, we are starting to eat and drink at the beginning of the game and evenly spacing out our beers.

To get an estimate of BAC, I used the Widmark Factor. Men and woman have different average blood amounts at the same body weight, so I’ve prepared a chart. Also, no fractional hot dogs allowed — if you start a hot dog or a beer, you better finish it — so I’ve rounded down.

Hot Dogs/Beer Blood Alcohol Table

Weight	Hot Dogs/Beer (M)	Peak BAC	At 2:51	Hot Dogs/Beer (F)	Peak	At 2:51
120 lb	2	0.062	0.051	2	0.072	0.061
140 lb	3	0.089	0.078	2	0.057	0.046
160 lb	3	0.074	0.063	3	0.085	0.074
180 lb	3	0.062	0.051	3	0.072	0.061
200 lb	4	0.081	0.070	3	0.061	0.051
220 lb	4	0.070	0.060	4	0.081	0.071
250 lb	5	0.081	0.070	4	0.068	0.057

So, for an 180-pound man, the answer is three hot dogs and beers, and for a 140-pound woman, two hot dogs and two beers.

Or eat as many as you want. I’m not the hot dog police. I don’t even know where to apply for that job or what it pays. But I’ll be damned if I’m going to be spending the next 20 years of my life keeping people from gobbling glizzies.

Source

* This article was originally published here