FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 14–20

We’ve made it to the final week of the regular season. There are still two divisions in the American League up for grabs, a couple of long-shot playoff hopefuls looking to make a last-minute run, and playoff seeding to fight over. It should make for a dramatic end to a great season.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

FanGraphs Power Rankings

Rank	Team	W-L	Hot/Cold	Elo	Opp Elo	Playoff%	Power Score	Δ
1	MIL	98-58		1602	1496	100.0%	1637	0
2	TBR	95-60		1594	1489	100.0%	1631	0
3	LAD	96-60		1580	1492	100.0%	1621	2
4	SDP	87-69		1578	1501	97.2%	1618	4
5	ATL	92-64		1565	1500	100.0%	1610	1
6	NYY	89-66	—	1556	1497	100.0%	1603	-3
7	BOS	84-72	—	1544	1500	100.0%	1594	-3
8	PHI	86-70	—	1546	1501	97.3%	1593	-1
9	CHC	87-69	—	1539	1501	99.9%	1590	0
10	CLE	81-75		1520	1498	97.6%	1572	3
11	CHW	80-76	—	1494	1500	96.2%	1552	0
12	TEX	78-78		1502	1496	56.5%	1517	3
13	HOU	77-79		1493	1493	45.8%	1481	-3
14	PIT	79-77		1534	1509	0.0%	1465	3
15	ARI	82-74	—	1527	1505	5.6%	1464	-1
16	TOR	77-79	—	1516	1504	3.6%	1456	-4
17	NYM	71-85		1508	1509	0.0%	1446	-1
18	BAL	75-81		1493	1504	0.1%	1435	0
19	MIA	76-80		1476	1503	0.0%	1422	0
20	DET	73-83		1470	1491	0.0%	1417	2
21	CIN	72-84		1469	1508	0.0%	1416	0
22	KCR	67-89		1458	1498	0.0%	1408	-2
23	SEA	73-83		1456	1495	0.1%	1406	1
24	WSN	73-83		1455	1501	0.0%	1405	3
25	STL	76-80		1454	1500	0.0%	1405	-2
26	MIN	73-83	—	1451	1491	0.0%	1402	-1
27	SFG	64-92		1438	1505	0.0%	1393	-1
28	LAA	60-96		1409	1498	0.0%	1371	1
29	ATH	61-95	—	1400	1504	0.0%	1364	-1
30	COL	57-99	—	1373	1507	0.0%	1344	0

Elo up >20 pts (last 10) | Elo down >20 pts (last 10)
Avg opp Elo >1525 (last 10) | Avg opp Elo <1475 (last 10)

…

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Brewers	98-58	1602	1496	100.0%	1637
Rays	95-60	1594	1489	100.0%	1631

It was a great week for the Brewers. They won their fourth straight NL Central title and sixth in the last nine years, and also set another franchise record for wins in a single season, one year after setting the previous record. They now have a chance to win 100 games for the first time in club history this week and still have the top seed in the NL to play for.

The Rays swept the Athletics and won their series against the Red Sox last week to put some distance between themselves and the Yankees in the AL East race. The gap in the division is now six games, and even though the two rivals play each other four times during the final week of the season, it would take a massive collapse from Tampa Bay to upset the current standings. Because the Rays also currently lead the season series with the Yankees, 6-3, all they need is to win one of the four games in New York to take the division title. With Shane McClanahan still recovering from his forearm injury — his availability for the playoffs is up in the air — Freddy Peralta has stepped up to lead the pitching staff over the last few weeks. Across his last five starts, he’s allowed just three runs in 28 2/3 innings. That’s the kind of production the Rays were hoping to get when they acquired him at the trade deadline.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Dodgers	96-60	1580	1492	100.0%	1621
Padres	87-69	1578	1501	97.2%	1618
Braves	92-64	1565	1500	100.0%	1610
Yankees	89-66	1556	1497	100.0%	1603

The Dodgers are getting all their pieces in place for the postseason. Andy Pages and Roki Sasaki will be activated off the IL on Tuesday, and Shohei Ohtani should follow on Wednesday. There’s a lingering question about Blake Snell’s status after he injured his groin last week, but it sounds like he’ll be able to make a start during the final weekend of the season. And even though the majority of the year has been a slog for Kyle Tucker, his bat seems to have finally woken up at the right time; he collected nine hits and three home runs last week.

Having won 13 of their last 14 games, the Padres are peaking at exactly the right moment. They’ve surged five games ahead of the Diamondbacks and one ahead of the Phillies in the NL Wild Card standings, and are now tied with the Cubs for the top spot. San Diego’s final series of the season against Arizona still looms large, especially if the Friars stumble against the Dodgers in the series beforehand. You’re probably familiar with Fernando Tatis Jr.’s hot streak — he blasted four home runs last week to bring his total in September up to eight — but the biggest contributor to the Padres’ success recently has been Ty France. He had 12 hits and a home run last week and has posted a fantastic 168 wRC+ during the second half of the season.

After a couple of years away from the top, the Braves are NL East champions again — it’s their seventh division title in the last nine years. Atlanta’s dominance this year has been a welcome return to form. Even though his season has been a bit up and down, Ronald Acuña Jr. is looking like the superstar that won the MVP back in 2023 again. Last week, he smacked three home runs, including a go-ahead grand slam on Saturday, and is running a 191 wRC+ in September.

A little more than a week after being activated off the IL, Aaron Judge is back on the shelf, this time with a calf injury sustained on Wednesday. His availability for the playoffs is still up in the air, though he’s confident that he’ll be able to return sooner rather than later. Thankfully, Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be activated off the IL on Tuesday, and there’s some confidence that Trent Grisham will also be ready to return for the postseason. It helps that Ben Rice has bounced back from a rough August to post a 192 wRC+ in September. Still, Judge’s injury is a major blow to the Yankees’ hopes for a deep October run.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Red Sox	84-72	1544	1500	100.0%	1594
Phillies	86-70	1546	1501	97.3%	1593
Cubs	87-69	1539	1501	99.9%	1590

Even though the Red Sox lost both of their series last week, they managed to clinch a postseason berth on Sunday. It’s the cap to a remarkable turnaround after the team looked completely lost in mid-June. Boston can officially secure the second Wild Card spot with a couple of wins against the Guardians this week. Then the team can turn its attention to the Yankees and the rematch of last year’s Wild Card matchup between these two historic rivals.

Nothing is going to come easy for the Phillies over the next few weeks. The team placed Jesús Luzardo on the IL last week with a shoulder injury, but thankfully, it sounds like he’ll be ready to pitch in the playoffs. But before they count their chickens, they need to actually clinch a playoff spot. Philadelphia is four games up on the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race, but its upcoming opponents are no cake walk; the Phillies have the Brewers and Rays on the schedule to finish off the regular season. Facing two of the best teams in baseball is quite a test ahead of the postseason, and the Phillies haven’t exactly been playing well lately.

The biggest concern for the Cubs right now is the status of Alex Bregman. He was struck by a foul ball in the face while standing in the on-deck circle during Sunday’s game and was taken to the hospital for further evaluation. Alongside Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bregman has been one of the best hitters in baseball since the All-Star break. It would be a huge blow if the third baseman had to miss any significant amount of time at this point in the season. As for Crow-Armstrong, he’s two stolen bases away from joining the 40/40 club. He put a few finishing touches on his MVP case last week by bopping four more home runs, bringing his season total up to 45.

Tier 4 – The AL Melee

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Guardians	81-75	1520	1498	97.6%	1572
White Sox	80-76	1494	1500	96.2%	1552
Rangers	78-78	1502	1496	56.5%	1517
Astros	77-79	1493	1493	45.8%	1481

There was some upheaval in the two division races represented in this tier. Entering last week one game behind the White Sox in the AL Central standings, the Guardians took two of three games against the South Siders in a dramatic series, which included a walk-off on Tuesday and an improbable go-ahead homer on Wednesday. From there, although Chicago took advantage of playing — and winning — on Thursday while Cleveland was off to pull back into a tie atop the division, the Guardians just kept winning, sweeping the the Athletics over the weekend to bring their winning streak to five. José Ramírez finally broke out of his extended slump, tallying nine hits, a home run, and four stolen bases last week.

As for the White Sox, they won three of their four games against the the Tigers, but that one loss was enough to drop them to a game behind Cleveland in the Central. Still, the Sox have a three-game cushion for the final AL Wild Card spot, and they own the tiebreaker over the Guardians, meaning both first place and a potential first-round bye are still in their sights. Miguel Vargas is carrying most of the load for the lineup right now, hitting three home runs last week, but he needs some support if Chicago wants to make some noise in the postseason.

Over in the AL West, the Astros were swept by the Braves this past weekend, allowing the Rangers to jump into first place with a .500 record. Texas enters this week one game up, but crucially Houston holds the tiebreaker. If the Rangers can manage to hang on, it would be just their second postseason appearance in the last decade. The last time they made the playoffs, they won the World Series.

The Houston bullpen was responsible for the backbreaking losses on Saturday and Sunday, but the lack of offense has been a much bigger problem. Over the Astros’ last 10 games, they’ve scored more than four runs in a game just once. Yordan Alvarez looked fine last week (eight hits, including two home runs) after his ankle scare the previous weekend, and Jeremy Peña has been great too (10 hits, three homers), but the rest of the lineup has been struggling. During this 10-game stretch, Houston hitters not named Alvarez or Peña have combined for an ugly 55 wRC+.

Tier 5 – Long Shots

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Diamondbacks	82-74	1527	1505	5.6%	1464
Blue Jays	77-79	1516	1504	3.6%	1456

The Diamondbacks managed to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a pair of wins over the Yankees on Saturday and Sunday. The first victory was a walk-off and the second was highlighted by a go-ahead grand slam from Nolan Arenado. Arizona needs to take care of business in Colorado and get some help from the Dodgers to ensure that the final series against the Padres has some stakes. There’s a chance the Phillies could crash out, opening another window for the Snakes, but the direct path is through San Diego.

The Blue Jays’ hopes for a last-minute surge into the playoffs were dashed last week when they lost both of their series to the Tigers and Rangers. They’re three games back and have the Astros to contend with if they want to try and sneak into that final Wild Card spot. It’s probably too little, too late, but the team is activating Trey Yesavage off the IL on Monday as one more reinforcement ahead of a final push.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Pirates	79-77	1534	1509	0.0%	1465
Mets	71-85	1508	1509	0.0%	1446
Orioles	75-81	1493	1504	0.1%	1435
Marlins	76-80	1476	1503	0.0%	1422
Tigers	73-83	1470	1491	0.0%	1417
Reds	72-84	1469	1508	0.0%	1416

The series between the Orioles and Mets last week in Queens turned out to be more interesting than you’d expect from two teams mired in hugely disappointing seasons. Pete Alonso made his first appearance as a member of the opposing team at Citi Field and wound up hitting his 300th career home run on Tuesday, a game-tying shot in the ninth inning. He received a huge ovation from the hometown crowd, which drew some irksome comments from a few Mets players and staff after the game. Baltimore wound up sweeping New York to cut its deficit in the AL Wild Card race to 2.5 games. Alas, a sweep by the Brewers over the weekend slammed the door shut on any playoff hopes the O’s still had.

Even though the Marlins’ season essentially ended with that 12-game losing streak back in July, they have made some significant progress in their quest to become a contending club. Otto Lopez looks like a star they can build the lineup around, while Eury Pérez and Max Meyer should be strong enough to anchor the pitching staff in the years ahead. There’s also a cohort of young prospects in the upper minors who should be making their debuts soon. The future in Miami is brighter than it’s been in a while.

This is the huge step forward the Reds were hoping to see from Elly De La Cruz. In September, he has blasted seven home runs, including in five straight games earlier this month, and is running a major league-best 236 wRC+. It’s too bad the rest of Cincinnati’s roster is a bit of a mess. Sal Stewart has been excellent as De La Cruz’s sidekick, but the starting rotation has struggled mightily, and the big injury to Hunter Greene has thrown the ceiling of that group up in the air heading into next year. Still, building around a superstar like De La Cruz should make things easier if the resources to improve the rest of the roster are made available.

Tier 7 – Hope Deferred

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Royals	67-89	1458	1498	0.0%	1408
Mariners	73-83	1456	1495	0.1%	1406
Nationals	73-83	1455	1501	0.0%	1405
Cardinals	76-80	1454	1500	0.0%	1405
Twins	73-83	1451	1491	0.0%	1402
Giants	64-92	1438	1505	0.0%	1393
Angels	60-96	1409	1498	0.0%	1371
Athletics	61-95	1400	1504	0.0%	1364
Rockies	57-99	1373	1507	0.0%	1344

The AL Central crown runs through Kansas City; both the White Sox and Guardians travel to face the Royals during the final week of the season. Unfortunately, the Royals haven’t been playing well enough recently to act as a spoiler. They ended August with a 13-3 stretch, but they’ve been the worst team in the AL in September, with just five wins in 18 games.

It took a lot longer than expected, but the Twins were finally eliminated from the playoff race last week. It was a drama-filled week, too. They won a wild extra-inning walk-off affair against the Yankees on Wednesday and then were walked-off twice against the Angels between two shutout victories over the weekend. Even though they all made their big league debuts over the last few weeks, Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, and Emmanuel Rodriguez never all appeared in a game together. That trio represents the future of the organization, so it’s a little disappointing that that future couldn’t be realized in a small way this year.

Source

* This article was originally published here