Alright friends, let’s break down the big deadline deal from Saturday night that everyone’s talking about, the one that sent a 29-year-old left-handed pitcher who’s an impending free agent from the AL Central to an NL division leader. That’s right, we’re talking about Bailey Falter.
Well, that was fun.
On Saturday night, just before the big news about Tarik Skubal broke, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Royals had traded Falter and veteran outfielder Lane Thomas to Atlanta. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that the return was minor league pitchers Carter Holton and Lucas Braun. Falter may be able to help a depleted Braves staff finish out the regular season, but he’s headed to Triple-A Gwinnett. Thomas is the clear headliner here. One more Skubal connection before we move on: The biggest moment of Thomas’ career so far came during Game 5 of the 2024 ALDS, when he powered the Guardians past the Tigers with a grand slam off Skubal. Should the Braves and the Dodgers meet in the playoffs this season, which certainly looks like a possibility right now, that will surely be on the minds of everyone involved.
While Thomas has played all three outfield positions this year, he’s spent most of his time in center. But with Michael Harris II ensconced in center in Atlanta and Ronald Acuña Jr. in right, he’ll now be relegated to left field. That’s probably for the best, as his defense has graded out very badly in center but is roughly average in the corners. What’s more, the Braves could use the help out there. Left field is one of three positions where they merited placement as part of Jay Jaffe’s Replacement-Level Killers series; they’ve gotten 0.4 WAR out of the position this season, which ranks 23rd in baseball.
Of course, they were supposed to have Jurickson Profar in left, but he’s serving his second PED suspension since signing a three-year, $42 million employment contract with the Braves; one can only imagine what his year-end performance review will look like. Mauricio Dubón and Mike Yastrzemski have split time in left in his place, but not quite the way the Braves would have hoped. Yastrzemski started the season there while Dubón filled in for the injured Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop. When Kim returned and Acuña went down with a hamstring injury, Yastrzemski moved to right field, where he shared time with Eli White, and Dubón got left field to himself. Dubón, Yastrzemski, and White have all been below average at the plate this season. With Acuña back from the IL, Dubòn will presumably move into more of a utility role while Thomas platoons with Yaz.
Thomas had a very rough 2025 season, losing time to plantar fasciitis and putting up a 48 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR across 39 games. This year, he’s got a 101 wRC+. That’s almost exactly his career average, and it’s not much of an improvement over Dubón’s 94 mark. Moreover, Dubón’s defense has graded out well this season just about everywhere he’s played. As a result, he’s got 1.7 WAR to Thomas’s 0.8. Even accounting for the fact that Dubón has gotten roughly 100 more plate appearances than Thomas, he’s still been the more productive player this season and not by a little. So why bring in Thomas?
First, Thomas isn’t simply going to absorb Dubón’s plate appearances. Thomas will take some from Dubón, but he’ll also take some from White. Dubón is a great defender, but he hasn’t gotten to show off his versatility of late. He’ll probably get to do more bouncing around the diamond to wherever he can be most useful now. Rookie Jim Jarvis is running a 101 wRC+ at shortstop, but Dubón might end up back at the six should Jarvis stop outperforming his xwOBA.
Second, it doesn’t sound Thomas is just going to be the everyday left fielder. “The plan is not the exact same role he had in Kansas City, where he was playing every day in center,” Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters. “His strength is hitting left-handers.” Anthopoulos elaborated. “We’ve been facing a lot of left-handed openers. I think there’s been moments when [manager] Walt [Weiss] has been in a tough spot, and where he’s had to use a catcher as a right-handed pinch-hitter, and things like that. I don’t want to speak for Walt, but I think having a second right-handed option along with Eli [White], that would have opened things up for him.” Thomas faced righties nearly 60% of the time in Kansas City, and that number sure sounds like it will be much lower in Atlanta. That would be a big deal, because he’s got serious platoon splits. This season, he’s got an 84 wRC+ against righties and 125 wRC+ against lefties, and that’s actually less extreme than his career numbers.
Third, this graph might have something to do with it:
Thomas got a slow start, but he’s looked much better as the season has gone on. He ran a 124 wRC+ in July, though I’ll note that he’s been ice-cold lately, running a 26 wRC+ over his last 12 games. I doubt the Braves put too much stock in these kinds of splits, but it’s also at least worth mentioning that this is par for the course. Thomas has a career wRC+ of 104 in the second half, compared to a 96 in the first half. Whether or not you believe that he’ll be hotter from here on out, Thomas is also having an interesting season. His walk and strikeout rates are among the best of his entire career, and although his top-end contact quality hasn’t changed much, his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are the highest he’s put up since 2021. He’s making better swing decisions and making more solid contact this season, which is why his 94 DRC+ is his highest since 2023.
Thomas isn’t a game-changing bat, but you can at least talk yourself into the idea that he’s got more in the tank than his full-season stats indicate. He represents a small upgrade at a position of real weakness for the Braves. He gives them both flexibility and depth, which is rightly a priority with Acuña recovering from a hamstring injury that has already flared up once. Lastly, the Braves should be able to put him in a better position to succeed by letting him spend much more of his time facing lefties.
I don’t know whether the Braves took Falter because they might want to use him or because he represents salary relief for the Royals. He’s making $3.6 million in arbitration, so that’s at least a possibility. He’s spent much of the year on the IL with elbow inflammation, and he’s only made five appearances in Kansas City. The Royals DFA’d him earlier in the year, and his Triple-A numbers, a 3.35 ERA and 3.46 FIP, have been solid over 17 appearances. Atlanta could certainly use the depth, and they’re going to spend the next 30 hours looking for more pitching help. Joey Wentz is out for the season. Spencer Schwellenbach is isn’t yet facing live hitters. Spencer Strider’s future is uncertain. Robert Suarez has been out since June 19. Joe Jiménez, who hasn’t pitched since 2024, had another setback.
Now let’s get to the return. Braun is a 6-foot righty who turns 25 in a couple weeks. He’s got an intriguingly compact delivery that gives him an extremely low release point. It’s deceptive. It must look like the ball is just sort of popping out of his shoulder to hitters:
The Braves took Braun out of Cal State Northridge in the sixth round of the 2023 draft. He’s put up great numbers across the minors. Eric Longenhagen ranked him 10th in the system last year as a 45-FV prospect, seeing him as a future fourth or fifth starter. However, Brendan Gawlowski noted Braun’s lack of a putaway pitch and ranked him 22nd this year as a 40 FV – lower than Holton – despite a long list of positive attributes: great athleticism, a robust arsenal, the ability to hit the strike zone, success in the minors, and the funky delivery I mentioned earlier. “Deception is key here as well,” Brendan wrote, “both modern (a slightly low release) and old school (glove throw, a little hesitation toward the top that can mess with timing). All of those factors are going to be important to maintain because Braun’s stuff is just okay.”
That’s baseball. Will Braun’s funk be enough to keep fooling major leaguers? The best projections say yes, and see him as a future no. 4 starter. Brendan’s not quite so sanguine, seeing his median projection as “a length guy who can flex in and out of the rotation as needed.” We’re not going to know for sure until we see it happen. Knowing this, it’s worth noting that when Braun got promoted to Triple-A this season, his numbers took a step back. His strikeout rate dropped from 25.1% to 16.1% and his walk rate rose from 5.4% to 8.3%. His ERA rose from 3.20 to 3.92, and his FIP and expected numbers took even bigger jumps. Regardless, we’ll probably find out soon enough. Royals GM J.J. Picollo said he hopes Brain will pitch in Kansas City sooner rather than later, which I interpret to mean later this year.
Holton is an undersized lefty who sits 92-94 mph with a herky-jerky delivery and an over-the-top release point. He was a three-year starter at Vanderbilt, but after a brilliant freshman showing, his performance worsened in each of the following years. The Braves drafted him in the second round in 2024, but he underwent Tommy John that August after pitching just two innings and missed the entire 2025 season. Eric ranked him 18th in their system last year as a 40 FV, noting that in those two innings, he showcased an interesting slider. Brendan put him 19th this March (still as a 40 FV), noting that the hard slider really does look good. Unfortunately, Holton doesn’t have much beyond the slider. He’s now 23 years old, and he isn’t putting up great numbers in Low-A. He’s got a 4.32 ERA and 4.53 FIP.
I get that this is not the Tarik Skubal trade, or even the Luis Castillo trade. Thomas’ stock is lower than it was when the Guardians traded for him at the deadline two years ago, and it might seem odd for the pitching-starved Braves to be sending away a starter who seems awfully close to major league-ready. But they’re not in the market for fourth starters right now. The Braves are headed for the playoffs, and they’re looking for ways to improve their chances once they get there. They’re shoring up their weaknesses and building up their depth. They’ve landed one of the better outfielders on the market, and should they run into Skubal and the Dodgers down the line, they’ll undoubtedly feel a bit better about their chances.
* This article was originally published here
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