If you want to point to an example of parity in baseball, just look at the AL Wild Card standings. There are six teams within 2.5 games of the final Wild Card berth. Yes, all six are below .500, but having that many clubs competing for one playoff spot at this point in the season should make for some very exciting baseball down the stretch.
Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.
First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Hot/Cold | Elo | Opp Elo | Playoff% | Power Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIL | 77-48 |  |
1568 | 1494 | 100.0% | 1603 | 1 |
| 2 | CHC | 72-53 |  |
1561 | 1497 | 98.0% | 1594 | 1 |
| 3 | TBR | 74-49 | |
1555 | 1484 | 100.0% | 1592 | 1 |
| 4 | ATL | 74-50 | — | 1555 | 1495 | 99.5% | 1591 | 1 |
| 5 | BOS | 66-58 |  |
1561 | 1501 | 92.3% | 1585 | -4 |
| 6 | LAD | 74-51 | — | 1535 | 1496 | 100.0% | 1576 | 0 |
| 7 | NYY | 69-55 | — | 1527 | 1498 | 99.2% | 1568 | 0 |
| 8 | CHW | 65-58 | — | 1527 | 1501 | 72.3% | 1556 | 2 |
| 9 | SDP | 67-58 |  |
1553 | 1506 | 57.8% | 1550 | 3 |
| 10 | HOU | 63-62 | |
1517 | 1490 | 62.2% | 1531 | -1 |
| 11 | PHI | 67-58 | — | 1527 | 1500 | 77.2% | 1529 | 0 |
| 12 | ARI | 66-59 | — | 1532 | 1504 | 44.4% | 1521 | -4 |
| 13 | BAL | 61-63 | — | 1520 | 1504 | 23.4% | 1499 | 2 |
| 14 | TOR | 61-65 | |
1522 | 1506 | 17.0% | 1489 | 4 |
| 15 | MIA | 64-61 | |
1509 | 1499 | 9.7% | 1480 | 1 |
| 16 | DET | 60-64 | |
1505 | 1493 | 18.7% | 1475 | -3 |
| 17 | STL | 63-61 | |
1499 | 1505 | 9.2% | 1468 | 2 |
| 18 | NYM | 56-69 | |
1509 | 1506 | 0.1% | 1459 | 2 |
| 19 | TEX | 61-64 | |
1465 | 1495 | 32.0% | 1456 | -5 |
| 20 | MIN | 60-65 | — | 1474 | 1492 | 21.3% | 1450 | -3 |
| 21 | SEA | 59-66 | |
1472 | 1498 | 35.4% | 1446 | 4 |
| 22 | PIT | 61-65 | |
1486 | 1511 | 3.6% | 1443 | 2 |
| 23 | CIN | 59-64 | |
1482 | 1502 | 0.2% | 1440 | 0 |
| 24 | CLE | 60-65 | — | 1456 | 1507 | 26.2% | 1434 | -2 |
| 25 | WSN | 60-66 | — | 1459 | 1505 | 0.3% | 1420 | -4 |
| 26 | COL | 50-74 | — | 1441 | 1508 | 0.0% | 1405 | 2 |
| 27 | KCR | 51-74 | — | 1436 | 1497 | 0.0% | 1400 | -1 |
| 28 | SFG | 51-73 | — | 1431 | 1503 | 0.0% | 1397 | -1 |
| 29 | LAA | 49-76 | |
1422 | 1498 | 0.0% | 1389 | 0 |
| 30 | ATH | 49-75 | |
1394 | 1506 | 0.0% | 1366 | 0 |
Elo up >20 pts (last 10) | Elo down >20 pts (last 10) Avg opp Elo >1525 (last 10) | Avg opp Elo <1475 (last 10)…
| Team | Record | Elo | Opponent Elo | Playoff Odds | Power Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 77-48 | 1568 | 1494 | 100.0% | 1603 |
| Cubs | 72-53 | 1561 | 1497 | 98.0% | 1594 |
| Rays | 74-49 | 1555 | 1484 | 100.0% | 1592 |
| Braves | 74-50 | 1555 | 1495 | 99.5% | 1591 |
| Red Sox | 66-58 | 1561 | 1501 | 92.3% | 1585 |
After getting swept by the Padres earlier in the week, the Brewers bounced back by winning a hard-fought four-game series over the Dodgers. After last year’s lopsided NLCS defeat against Los Angeles, taking three of four on the road and claiming the season series has to give Milwaukee a bit of confidence ahead of a possible rematch this October.
The Cubs couldn’t overcome a potent Cardinals offense this past weekend, dropping two of three to their division rival. The back-to-back losses on Saturday and Sunday marked the first time Chicago had lost twice in a row since early July. At one point last week, after the Brewers had been swept by San Diego, the Cubs had cut their deficit in the NL Central to three games; it’s back up to five after the weekend’s games. These two teams are two weeks away from the start of a huge 10-day stretch in which they play each other seven times. If the Cubs keep things close in the Central until then, those seven games could decide the division.
The Rays returned home on Friday after having completed a perfect nine-game road trip through Colorado, Seattle, and Sacramento. They were rudely welcomed there by the Orioles, who won the first three games of a wraparound series that concludes on Monday. Drew Rasmussen had a 22-inning scoreless streak snapped in his start against the Athletics last week, but he was still the pitcher of record in a Tampa Bay win. With Rasmussen dominating and Shane McClanahan, who is scheduled to be activated off the IL in time to start Monday’s series finale, on the mend, the Rays haven’t exactly needed Freddy Peralta to step up, but it sure would be nice to see some positive signs from their big trade deadline acquisition. He allowed five runs in 10 2/3 innings across two starts last week.
It was surprising to see the Braves make only a few small moves at the trade deadline, particularly with their need for starting pitching. Of course, Tyler Mahle, the one starter they did bring in, has allowed just a single run in 12 innings across two starts with Atlanta. Oh, and Martín Pérez has made three straight scoreless starts and has allowed just three runs total in five starts since returning from a brief IL stint at the end of July. I’m not sure if I’d want those guys starting in a playoff series, but the Braves might not have any other choice.
The Red Sox crashed back down to Earth last week. They lost three of four to the Blue Jays to start the week and then dropped a weekend series to the Pirates. Those five losses were more than the team had in the entire month of July. Still, Boston is in a good position in the standings thanks to that ridiculous hot streak; the Sox are five games ahead of that huge blob fighting over the final AL Wild Card spot.
| Team | Record | Elo | Opponent Elo | Playoff Odds | Power Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 74-51 | 1535 | 1496 | 100.0% | 1576 |
| Yankees | 69-55 | 1527 | 1498 | 99.2% | 1568 |
| White Sox | 65-58 | 1527 | 1501 | 72.3% | 1556 |
| Padres | 67-58 | 1553 | 1506 | 57.8% | 1550 |
The Dodgers’ second-half woes continued last week, even as they began their homestand with a three-game sweep of the lowly Royals. The scoring margin for the entire series was just four runs, with Monday’s back-and-forth affair and Tuesday’s extra-innings contest being decided by one run each. Then, the Dodgers followed that up by dropping three of four against the Brewers, giving Milwaukee the head-to-head advantage for a potential playoff seeding tiebreaker. At least Blake Snell looked dominant in his return from the IL on Tuesday, when he went six innings, gave up one run on three hits and one walk, and struck out 10. Unfortunately, the revolving door continues to spin for the rotation. On Sunday, the Dodgers placed All-Star left-hander Justin Wrobleski on the IL with forearm inflammation.
The Yankees barely managed to salvage a single win against the Blue Jays over the weekend, winning in extra innings on Sunday. New York’s offensive issues haven’t been resolved by the team’s two big acquisitions at the trade deadline; Luis García Jr. has produced an 84 wRC+ with the Yankees, while Heliot Ramos is sporting an ugly mark of 7 since his trade from the Giants. The Yankees are averaging the second-fewest runs in baseball since the All-Star break (just 3.2 runs per game), and they have scored more than five runs in a single game just twice in August. Cody Bellinger should start his rehab assignment this week and Aaron Judge just started ramping up his baseball activities, though he’s still at least a month away from returning from his rib injury.
A week after taking two of three from the Guardians to secure their spot at the top of the AL Central standings, the White Sox further cemented their lead by sweeping the Tigers this past weekend, though they lost two games in their midweek three-game set against the Reds. Chicago now has a 5.5-game lead over Detroit and a six-game lead over both Cleveland and the Twins. Miguel Vargas, who entered the series against Cincinnati with just an 85 wRC+ since the All-Star break, blasted four home runs and collected seven hits in five games last week.
The Padres continued their charge up the standings, sweeping the Brewers to begin last week before winning a weekend series against the Guardians. They’ve now won 17 of their last 22 games and are tied with the Braves for the best second-half record in the NL. Fernando Tatis Jr. is quickly making up for his early-season power outage; he bopped two home runs last week and is now up to five this month and eight since the All-Star break.
| Team | Record | Elo | Opponent Elo | Playoff Odds | Power Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 67-58 | 1527 | 1500 | 77.2% | 1529 |
| Diamondbacks | 66-59 | 1532 | 1504 | 44.4% | 1521 |
| Marlins | 64-61 | 1509 | 1499 | 9.7% | 1480 |
| Cardinals | 63-61 | 1499 | 1505 | 9.2% | 1468 |
The Phillies pummeled the Twins over the weekend. Kyle Schwarber launched a pair of home runs in the Field of Dreams game on Thursday and Alec Bohm collected eight hits, four doubles, and a home run in the three-game series. Zack Wheeler has really struggled recently; he’s allowed 14 runs in 15 1/3 innings across his last four starts. Thankfully, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo have continued to lead the rotation, but Philadelphia needs its veteran ace to turn things around if the team is going to come out on top in this tightly contested NL Wild Card race. The Phillies have both the Marlins and Cardinals on the schedule this week in two series that have the potential to upend the standings.
Nolan Arenado blasted a pair of home runs on Saturday to lead the Diamondbacks to a win over the Braves. Since the beginning of July, he’s posted a 136 wRC+ with 11 home runs. Unfortunately, he exited Sunday’s game with what the team is describing as “left trunk discomfort.” Hopefully that won’t keep him sidelined for long. On the pitching side of things, Brandon Pfaadt has been on fire since rejoining the starting rotation on June 30; beginning with that outing, he’s made nine starts and allowed just eight runs over 54 2/3 innings with a 4.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Marlins and Cardinals are a step behind the Phillies, Padres, and Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race, but don’t count them out yet. Last week, St. Louis won two huge series against Philadelphia and the Cubs. Outfield prospect Joshua Báez’s debut on Saturday was the stuff of legends; he smacked home runs in each of his first three plate appearances in the big leagues, the first player to ever accomplish that feat. Meanwhile in Miami, Sandy Alcantara is leading the way. He allowed his first run since July 22 in his start against the Reds last week, snapping a 20-inning scoreless streak.
| Team | Record | Elo | Opponent Elo | Playoff Odds | Power Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 63-62 | 1517 | 1490 | 62.2% | 1531 |
| Orioles | 61-63 | 1520 | 1504 | 23.4% | 1499 |
| Blue Jays | 61-65 | 1522 | 1506 | 17.0% | 1489 |
| Tigers | 60-64 | 1505 | 1493 | 18.7% | 1475 |
| Rangers | 61-64 | 1465 | 1495 | 32.0% | 1456 |
| Twins | 60-65 | 1474 | 1492 | 21.3% | 1450 |
| Mariners | 59-66 | 1472 | 1498 | 35.4% | 1446 |
| Guardians | 60-65 | 1456 | 1507 | 26.2% | 1434 |
At one point on Saturday — after all the East Coast games had ended, while the Rangers were still playing the Athletics on the West Coast — there were four teams tied for the final AL Wild Card spot and two others just half a game back. A day of games later, and it’s the Orioles who hold that final playoff berth outright with six other teams within 2.5 games. It’s going to be an absolutely frantic chase for the sixth seed down the stretch.
After posting a 5-2 record last week against the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays have now won six straight series to get back in the playoff race. They’ve got the Rays and a visit to New York on the docket for this week. Unfortunately, Toronto had to place Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the 7-day concussion IL after a collision in Friday’s game. As for the Orioles, they’re rising up thanks to the heroics of Pete Alonso, who hit three home runs last week and has tallied 16 hits across his last eight games. Baltimore wraps up its series in Tampa Bay on Monday, then heads home to host the Yankees and Rays this week. Despite underperforming for much of the season, both the Jays and the O’s have a chance to take advantage of a lackluster AL field and make a late push for the postseason.
The Tigers won a critical series against the Guardians early last week before getting swept by the White Sox over the weekend. It probably would have been great if Detroit had two top starting pitchers to help anchor the rotation. Alas. Cleveland has lost five straight series now and has the second-worst record in baseball since the All-Star break. José Ramírez has put up a disappointing 73 wRC+ in 20 games since returning from his hamate injury on July 22; he finally recorded his first extra-base hit since that date on Saturday. As for the third AL Central team in this tier, the Twins activated Byron Buxton off the IL for the Field of Dreams game on Thursday. He doubled in his return but went hitless in the two other games against the Phillies. The Guardians and the Twins desperately need their superstars to carry the load to stay in the thick of the playoff race.
The Mariners suffered a heartbreaking extra-innings loss on Friday to open up a huge series against the Astros. Seattle had battled back to tie the game in the eighth inning and took a two-run lead in the top of the 10th before Andrés Muñoz allowed five runs to score in the bottom half of the inning, including three on Christian Walker’s walk-off home run. The M’s bounced back, winning the final two games of the series to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Elsewhere in the AL West, the Rangers continued their recent up-and-down oscillation, going 2-5 against the dreadful Angels and A’s. Two weeks ago, Texas went 4-2; the week before that, 1-5. The door to claim a significant lead in either the AL West or the Wild Card race has been wide open, but the Rangers keep tripping at the threshold.
| Team | Record | Elo | Opponent Elo | Playoff Odds | Power Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 56-69 | 1509 | 1506 | 0.1% | 1459 |
| Pirates | 61-65 | 1486 | 1511 | 3.6% | 1443 |
| Reds | 59-64 | 1482 | 1502 | 0.2% | 1440 |
| Nationals | 60-66 | 1459 | 1505 | 0.3% | 1420 |
The Pirates won their weekend series against the Red Sox, just their second series win of the second half. They had looked like a Wild Card contender for much of the first half of the season, but the wheels have come off over the last month. And now, making matters worse, Paul Skenes had his scheduled start on Sunday pushed back to this Wednesday. His velocity is down a tiny bit, and he’s struggled over the last three months, beginning with a loss to the Phillies on May 17. During that 16-start span, he has a 5.00 ERA across 84 2/3 innings, though his 3.83 xERA and 3.29 FIP suggest he’s still performing well, if not to his typical Cy Young caliber. While it looks like it’ll end up being a disappointing finish to the season, Pittsburgh has taken some real steps forward this year. Building on that progress for the rest of the season and heading into 2027 should be the team’s top priority.
The worst-case scenario for Hunter Greene and the Reds has come to pass; he underwent Tommy John surgery on Thursday, likely wiping out his entire 2027 season. Losing him for that long takes what was one of the few strengths of the team, the starting rotation, and throws it up in the air. Chase Burns looks like a frontline ace, and Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott aren’t bad mid-rotation arms, but a healthy Greene would have elevated the entire group to another level. At least Sal Stewart is having a strong rookie season.
| Team | Record | Elo | Opponent Elo | Playoff Odds | Power Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | 50-74 | 1441 | 1508 | 0.0% | 1405 |
| Royals | 51-74 | 1436 | 1497 | 0.0% | 1400 |
| Giants | 51-73 | 1431 | 1503 | 0.0% | 1397 |
| Angels | 49-76 | 1422 | 1498 | 0.0% | 1389 |
| Athletics | 49-75 | 1394 | 1506 | 0.0% | 1366 |
The Angels played the role of spoiler against the Rangers last week, winning a four-game series against their division rival. They’ll continue to have opportunities to throw a little chaos into the playoff picture, as six of their next seven series come against teams competing for postseason spots. Even though the Halos were almost no-hit on Sunday, there are a few bright spots on their roster. Reid Detmers struck out 11 in his start on Saturday, his best outing since June; Walbert Ureña, who has allowed just seven runs across his last seven starts, looks like a huge success story for a development pipeline with a spotty (to put it mildly) track record; and Ben Joyce is back from his shoulder injury and lighting up the radar gun coming out of the bullpen. The rebuild in Los Angeles will take a lot of effort, but at least there are some pieces already in place.
* This article was originally published here
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