FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 16–26

With the second half of the season well underway, the trade deadline is almost upon us. This week is a critical stretch for a number of teams sitting on the fence between buying and selling. A nice little winning streak could push them to act a little more aggressively on the trade market, while a bout of losing could be decisive enough to add another seller to the mix.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

FanGraphs Power Rankings

Rank	Team	W-L	Hot/Cold	Elo	Opp Elo	Playoff%	Power Score	Δ
1	MIL	66-39	—	1585	1495	99.8%	1612	1
2	LAD	67-39	—	1584	1491	100.0%	1611	-1
3	BOS	54-50		1576	1506	70.0%	1575	6
4	TBR	62-43	—	1540	1487	98.6%	1573	0
5	ATL	62-43	—	1536	1493	98.2%	1567	3
6	CHC	59-46	—	1546	1498	86.1%	1564	-1
7	NYY	59-46		1529	1496	98.4%	1559	-1
8	PHI	57-49		1533	1503	83.8%	1537	-5
9	CHW	55-49	—	1514	1496	44.2%	1530	2
10	TEX	53-52	—	1507	1500	57.1%	1510	2
11	ARI	55-51		1519	1503	36.7%	1508	5
12	PIT	54-52		1520	1509	41.9%	1499	1
13	MIN	53-54	—	1506	1492	33.0%	1497	1
14	HOU	52-55	—	1510	1493	27.5%	1496	4
15	CLE	54-53		1487	1507	48.3%	1488	-5
16	BAL	51-55	—	1510	1505	21.4%	1487	3
17	WSN	54-52		1501	1502	10.2%	1483	5
18	DET	50-56		1508	1497	32.1%	1479	2
19	SEA	52-54	—	1483	1491	61.7%	1478	-2
20	SDP	53-53	—	1493	1507	14.6%	1470	1
21	STL	53-52		1473	1503	17.7%	1458	-6
22	MIA	52-54		1475	1501	7.9%	1450	-15
23	CIN	49-55		1479	1507	2.4%	1447	2
24	TOR	48-58		1462	1502	7.1%	1433	-1
25	NYM	44-62		1463	1506	0.4%	1429	1
26	KCR	45-62		1463	1498	0.2%	1428	2
27	SFG	44-61		1445	1502	0.2%	1414	-3
28	LAA	42-64	—	1424	1497	0.0%	1396	1
29	COL	42-65	—	1426	1511	0.0%	1397	-2
30	ATH	44-61	—	1404	1500	0.3%	1380	0

Elo up >20 pts (last 10) | Elo down >20 pts (last 10)
Avg opp Elo >1525 (last 10) | Avg opp Elo <1475 (last 10)

…

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Brewers	66-39	1585	1495	99.8%	1612
Dodgers	67-39	1584	1491	100.0%	1611

Going 7-2 coming out of the All-Star break has helped the Brewers open up a seven-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central. After skipping his final start of the first half due to arm fatigue, Jacob Misiorowski looked no worse for wear in two abbreviated starts last week; he allowed two runs in nine innings and struck out 18, including the first seven batters in his start on Sunday. With Milwaukee eyeing a deep postseason run, managing the ace’s workload down the stretch will be of paramount importance. Thankfully, at least one rotation reinforcement is on the way. Kyle Harrison is scheduled to start a rehab assignment this week, and the team is likely looking to add some pitching depth ahead of next week’s trade deadline, too.

Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are need to manage the workload of one of their best pitchers — except this pitcher also happens to be their best hitter. The knee issue that forced Shohei Ohtani to skip his final start before the All-Star break, and then miss the Midsummer Classic itself, has lingered into the second half of the season, though because it is to his left knee, it has not impacted his ability to bat. A planned bullpen session was scrapped last week, and there is no timetable for his return to the mound. With a 12-game lead in the NL West, the Dodgers are seemingly in cruise control as they gear up for another deep postseason run, so making sure their superstar is available and healthy in October is their top priority. Meanwhile, Blake Snell is close to completing his rehab assignment, and Tyler Glasnow is progressing through his throwing program, as well. With those two on the mend, Los Angeles, which may also look to add another starting pitcher at the deadline, won’t be lacking for options in the rotation even if Ohtani isn’t healthy enough to pitch a significant amount of innings over the rest of the season.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Red Sox	54-50	1576	1506	70.0%	1575
Rays	62-43	1540	1487	98.6%	1573
Braves	62-43	1536	1493	98.2%	1567
Cubs	59-46	1546	1498	86.1%	1564
Yankees	59-46	1529	1496	98.4%	1559

The Red Sox finally had their incredible winning streak snapped at 15 games with a loss to the Orioles in the nightcap of a doubleheader on Wednesday. After taking two of three games from the Blue Jays over the weekend, they now possess the fifth seed in the American League and have a 1.5-game lead over the Guardians, who currently hold the final AL Wild Card spot. Emboldened by the hot streak, Boston got an early start on its deadline dealing, trading injured starter Connelly Early to the Nationals for infielder Curtis Mead on Saturday. With the emergence of Jake Bennett (himself a trade acquisition from Washington this past offseason) and the return of Patrick Sandoval, Early became an expendable left-handed arm for the team to use to gain a much-needed right-handed bat.

The Rays bounced back nicely after being swept by the Red Sox to open the second half of the season; they won a four-game set against the Blue Jays last week and then swept the Guardians over the weekend. I don’t think they expected to be such obvious buyers at the trade deadline, but with the best record in the AL and a three-game lead in their division, they’re in position to capitalize on this surprisingly competitive season. They’re even rumored to be eying two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal if the Tigers make him available, which would be an uncharacteristically aggressive move from the normally frugal ballclub.

As for the third team from the AL East in this tier, the Yankees suffered yet another injury in their lineup over the weekend, as Cody Bellinger went down with a left hamstring strain on Saturday. He’s the third former MVP currently on the IL for the Yankees, along with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Stanton, who’s been out since the end of April, has no timeline to start a rehab assignment, while Judge still hasn’t been cleared to resume baseball activities. The Yankees have scored just 2.9 runs per game in their nine games since the All-Star break. That was good enough to earn five wins during this stretch thanks to the continued dominance of their pitching staff, which got even stronger on Wednesday when it welcomed back Max Fried. In his return from the left elbow injury that cost him more than two months, he tossed five scoreless innings of one-hit ball against the Pirates. New York hasn’t collapsed despite its run-scoring issues, but you can bet offensive upgrades are at the top of its shopping list ahead of next Tuesday’s deadline.

With Ohtani unable to pitch for the foreseeable future, the doorway for Pete Crow-Armstrong to claim the NL MVP is suddenly wide open. Last week, he collected nine hits, two home runs, and two triples, and he’s been the best player in baseball since the beginning of June. He’s now up to 7.0 WAR on the season to Ohtani’s combined 5.9. Thanks to Crow-Armstrong’s heroics, the Cubs have stabilized after an up-and-down first half of the season. They’re 4.5 games up in the NL Wild Card standings and will be desperately looking for pitching help over the next week.

After a dreadful 10-19 stretch from June 9 through the end of the first half nearly cost them their NL East lead, the Braves have finally turned things around. They’ve won all three of their series since the All-Star break and, as a result, have put some distance between themselves and the Phillies. Atlanta enters Monday’s series opener against the Mets with a 5.5-game lead over Philadelphia in the East. More good news: Ronald Acuña Jr. should be activated off the IL this week, and Drake Baldwin has broken out of the four-week slump he carried into the All-Star break. In 10 games since the start of the second half, Baldwin is batting .436/.542/.821 with five home runs and a 263 wRC+.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Phillies	57-49	1533	1503	83.8%	1537
White Sox	55-49	1514	1496	44.2%	1530
Rangers	53-52	1507	1500	57.1%	1510
Diamondbacks	55-51	1519	1503	36.7%	1508

The Phillies snapped a modest four-game losing streak on Sunday night with a big 11-4 victory over the Yankees. That allowed them to gain a little bit of breathing room over the surging Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race. Riding the momentum from a sweep of the Dodgers just before the All-Star break, Arizona won six of eight to start the second half before dropping the final two games of a weekend series against the Nationals.

The first-place White Sox are entering one of the most critical stretches of their season; over the next two weeks, they will face the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Guardians, a huge test against some of the best teams in the AL. At the same time, Chicago will be evaluating how aggressive to be ahead of the trade deadline on Monday. A respectable showing against New York and Tampa Bay could convince the front office to pour resources into helping this team make good on its big step forward this season.

Tier 4 – The Melee

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Pirates	54-52	1520	1509	41.9%	1499
Twins	53-54	1506	1492	33.0%	1497
Astros	52-55	1510	1493	27.5%	1496
Guardians	54-53	1487	1507	48.3%	1488
Orioles	51-55	1510	1505	21.4%	1487
Nationals	54-52	1501	1502	10.2%	1483
Tigers	50-56	1508	1497	32.1%	1479
Mariners	52-54	1483	1491	61.7%	1478

A five-game win streak helped the Astros jump briefly into second place in the AL West on Saturday before falling back to third with a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Jeremy Peña launched a pair of home runs in the losing effort, his fourth and fifth of the week. His hot bat has given Houston another offensive producer to pair with Yordan Alvarez; the big slugger hit three home runs himself last week. As for the top two teams in the division, the Rangers and Mariners faced each other in Arlington over the weekend. Texas took the first two games, but Seattle clawed back with four runs in the seventh inning to win on Sunday. The two rivals will finish the wrap-around four-game set on Monday; if the Rangers win, they’ll claim the season series and the all important tiebreaker.

The other division that’s well represented in this tier is the AL Central, with three clubs chasing the White Sox. The first two, the Guardians and Twins, split a four-game series last week; the final game was a nail-biting, 12-inning affair that Minnesota claimed to even the series. Cleveland activated José Ramírez from the IL for those final two games against the Twins, but unfortunately the team went on to get swept by the Rays over the weekend, extending its losing streak to five games.

Everyone’s eyes are going to be on the Tigers this week. They had started the second half of the season with six wins in eight games, continuing a hot streak that began at the end of June. Unfortunately, Detroit lost two heartbreakers in a row on Saturday and Sunday — the bullpen blew both games — and is now six games behind the White Sox in the division and 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race. The team still hasn’t given any indication about how it’s going to approach the trade deadline and whether or not Tarik Skubal will be available. It seems like whatever the Tigers do will come down to their performance over their next six games.

Tier 5 – Will They or Won’t They?

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Padres	53-53	1493	1507	14.6%	1470
Cardinals	53-52	1473	1503	17.7%	1458
Marlins	52-54	1475	1501	7.9%	1450
Blue Jays	48-58	1462	1502	7.1%	1433

The teams in this tier are sitting on a knife’s edge, close enough to contention that a good week could push them into buying at the trade deadline, but far enough back that they could also crash out of the playoff picture entirely. The Cardinals and Padres are closest to a playoff spot, at 1.5 and two games back, respectively, in the NL Wild Card standings. St. Louis entered this season focused on building for the future, and it doesn’t seem like it’ll change course and mortgage any of that future value to try and win now. The same can’t be said for San Diego. The Friars are built to contend, and they need to make the most of their star-studded roster while their core is still around. Thankfully, some of those stars are starting to show some signs of life; Jackson Merrill has tallied 13 hits and five home runs since the All-Star break, and Manny Machado has contributed 11 hits and four home runs.

The Marlins had a great run in June and early July to sneak into the NL Wild Card race. Unfortunately, a 12-game losing streak has very quickly sabotaged all the forward progress they had made. They have scored just 2.5 runs per game during this stretch, and Max Meyer was placed on the IL with a neck injury last week. Even so, Miami is only three games back in the Wild Card standings, but with things unraveling this quickly and the organization still more focused on the future, it seems like this is the end to any thought of being buyers ahead of the trade deadline.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Reds	49-55	1479	1507	2.4%	1447
Mets	44-62	1463	1506	0.4%	1429
Royals	45-62	1463	1498	0.2%	1428
Giants	44-61	1445	1502	0.2%	1414

Maybe I should have put the Reds in the tier above, considering they just went 6-3 on a nine-game road trip and are only five games back in the NL Wild Card race. However, they remain a last-place team and seem to be more than a few players away from truly contending. Cincinnati did secure a big piece of its future over the All-Star break, signing Chase Burns to a seven-year extension. With Burns and Hunter Greene fronting the starting rotation, and Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart leading the lineup, the Reds have solid building blocks in place. I’m just not sure the rest of their roster is up for making a big run this summer like they did last year. Selling smartly over the next week could set them up nicely for a stronger push next season.

Tier 7 – Hope Deferred

Team	Record	Elo	Opponent Elo	Playoff Odds	Power Score
Angels	42-64	1424	1497	0.0%	1396
Rockies	42-65	1426	1511	0.0%	1397
Athletics	44-61	1404	1500	0.3%	1380

Things have very quickly gone off the rails for the Athletics. Since June 20, they’re just 6-23, and they just lost Shea Langeliers for an extended period of time after he tore the meniscus in his right knee on Friday. The All-Star catcher is expected to miss the remainder of the season, the same fate as slugger Brent Rooker. And although the A’s activated Nick Kurtz off the IL on Sunday, it has become very clear, very quickly that this team is still a ways away from truly breaking out of its rebuilding cycle.

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