Is the NL East Race Already Over?

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

I don’t think many would quibble with me too harshly if I characterized the last two seasons for the Atlanta Braves as dreary disappointments. In 2024, the Braves were generally believed to challenge the Dodgers for the title of best team in baseball. This held true for about six weeks, but for the rest of the season, they suffered myriad injuries and played .500 ball, barely hanging onto a wild card spot before quickly being dispatched by the Padres. Going into 2025 with the hope for a healthier, bounce-back season, nothing of the sort happened. Atlanta finished at 76-86, the franchise’s first losing season since 2017. Expectations coming into this season were more muted. While the Braves were expected to be competitive (the FanGraphs projections were more optimistic than ZiPS), the excitement was certainly dampened compared to the previous two years.

So far in 2026, the Braves have defied the pundits and computers, dominating the NL East and sporting the best record in baseball, at 25-11. Their 8 1/2-game lead in the NL East isn’t an insurmountable one, but it’s quite impressive for this point in the season. No other division leader has more than a two-game lead right now! As crucially, the two teams expected to be Atlanta’s fiercest competition, the Phillies and Mets, are a bit farther behind, at 9 1/2 and 11 1/2 games back, respectively. Naturally, the success of the Braves and the struggles of Philadelphia and New York have changed how the final standings project to shake out.

ZiPS Median Projected Standings – NL East

Team	W	L	GB	Pct	Div%	WC%	Playoff%	WS Win%	80th	20th
Atlanta Braves	93	69	—	.574	68.4%	17.2%	85.6%	9.7%	100.8	85.7
Philadelphia Phillies	85	77	8	.525	20.8%	31.9%	52.7%	4.8%	92.3	78.0
New York Mets	79	83	14	.488	5.8%	17.5%	23.3%	1.3%	85.6	71.9
Miami Marlins	76	86	17	.469	4.8%	14.9%	19.6%	0.6%	84.6	70.0
Washington Nationals	67	95	26	.414	0.2%	0.9%	1.1%	0.0%	73.5	59.5

That’s quite a sea change from the start of the season. Of course, Atlanta isn’t projected to keep playing this well the rest of the way. We’re only a little over a month into the season, and we should expect some regression from the Braves as they play more games.

But just because things will normalize some does not mean that nothing has changed. I’m not convinced that Dominic Smith is a 157 wRC+ guy, or that Martín Pérez is the first person in history to figure out the secret to maintaining a sub-.200 BABIP, but there are other things about this team that I’m quite ready to believe. Matt Olson has had very big seasons before, and when healthy, Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Ozzie Albies isn’t going to hit .330 for the season, but he did amass the second-most WAR as a second baseman from 2018 to 2023, behind only Jose Altuve, so we have seen enough from him in the past to believe this is a true comeback campaign rather than an early-season mirage.

To get a better idea of what’s real and what’s fake, here are the ZiPS projections for the hitters currently on Atlanta’s Depth Charts roster, compared to their preseason projections.

ZiPS Projections – Braves Hitters Now vs. Preseason

Name	Rest-of-Season wRC+	Preseason wRC+	Diff	MLB Rank
Jim Jarvis	79.0	65.6	13.4	6
Ozzie Albies	107.9	97.6	10.4	16
Matt Olson	131.2	122.3	8.8	24
Dominic Smith	99.1	91.9	7.2	34
Drake Baldwin	130.2	124.6	5.6	48
Jorge Mateo	77.9	72.4	5.4	52
Michael Harris II	114.1	109.4	4.7	61
Mauricio Dubón	86.0	82.1	4.0	75
Chadwick Tromp	61.0	60.5	0.5	190
Kyle Farmer	76.7	76.3	0.4	195
Ha-Seong Kim	95.7	95.7	0.0	260
José Azocar	79.8	80.7	-0.9	408
Sean Murphy	103.4	104.8	-1.4	427
Eli White	87.2	90.1	-3.0	498
Austin Riley	116.1	122.5	-6.3	587
Ronald Acuña Jr.	147.7	156.6	-8.9	613
Mike Yastrzemski	102.3	111.6	-9.3	618

Even being skeptical of a few players, there are a lot more advancers than decliners here. Of all major league hitters currently projected to get plate appearances over the rest of the season, the Braves have nine of the top 100, more than you would expect from random chance. Only three players — Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mike Yastrzemski — have taken big hits, but they are still projected to be real contributors, though I’m a bit worried about Riley personally.

How does that compare to other teams? Using the rest-of-season Depth Charts playing time projections and applying both the up-to-date projections and the preseason ones to that projected playing time, we can get an idea of which teams have had something change and which teams have not.

ZiPS Projections – Team Hitters Now vs. Preseason

Name	Rest-of-Season wRC+	Preseason wRC+	Diff
Braves	112.2	108.9	3.3
Astros	107.5	105.3	2.1
Cardinals	100.9	99.3	1.6
Yankees	115.8	114.4	1.4
Cubs	111.4	110.1	1.3
Guardians	102.3	101.1	1.2
Tigers	106.0	105.0	1.0
Pirates	103.8	103.2	0.6
Marlins	100.1	99.5	0.6
White Sox	98.2	97.7	0.4
Nationals	94.9	94.6	0.3
Rays	99.3	99.2	0.1
Diamondbacks	102.6	102.5	0.1
Dodgers	120.3	120.3	0.1
Brewers	103.9	103.9	0.0
Mariners	112.2	112.9	-0.7
Angels	97.9	98.5	-0.7
Rockies	91.5	92.3	-0.7
Royals	101.9	102.7	-0.8
Blue Jays	106.2	107.1	-0.9
Orioles	112.9	113.9	-0.9
Twins	104.6	105.9	-1.3
Athletics	108.6	110.1	-1.5
Reds	99.8	101.5	-1.8
Rangers	105.4	107.3	-1.9
Phillies	106.8	108.7	-1.9
Padres	107.5	109.7	-2.2
Red Sox	101.2	103.5	-2.3
Giants	104.3	107.3	-3.0
Mets	110.3	114.4	-4.0

Atlanta’s offensive projection has improved more than that of any other team, so it isn’t just smoke and mirrors producing these results. At the risk of veering off topic, the 14-22 Astros’ having the second-most improved offensive projection is quite an awkward data point for the team’s struggling pitching staff. Conversely, even if you’re generally confident that the Phillies and Mets (and Red Sox) will right the ship, the projections are less optimistic than they were in March.

Let’s repeat the exercise with the pitchers:

ZiPS Projections – Braves Pitchers Now vs. Preseason

Name	Rest-of-Season ERA+	Preseason ERA+	Diff	MLB Rank
Dylan Lee	130.0	117.9	12.0	5
Robert Suarez	124.2	116.9	7.3	13
Raisel Iglesias	124.9	119.6	5.3	26
James Karinchak	102.8	99.3	3.5	58
Bryce Elder	97.5	96.1	1.4	137
Hurston Waldrep	98.6	97.3	1.2	149
Daysbel Hernández	93.6	93.0	0.7	182
Didier Fuentes	97.8	98.5	-0.7	282
Spencer Schwellenbach	123.6	124.5	-0.9	296
Dylan Dodd	100.0	101.0	-1.0	307
Carlos Carrasco	75.9	77.2	-1.3	347
AJ Smith-Shawver	104.9	106.5	-1.6	355
Hunter Stratton	95.0	96.6	-1.6	363
Anthony Molina	83.4	85.8	-2.3	421
Martín Pérez	96.1	99.1	-3.0	459
Victor Mederos	77.5	80.6	-3.1	481
Rolddy Muñoz	85.8	89.6	-3.8	522
Danny Young	96.3	100.5	-4.2	537
Tyler Kinley	101.0	105.3	-4.2	534
Ian Hamilton	110.2	115.1	-4.9	558
Spencer Strider	104.1	109.3	-5.2	579
Hayden Harris	98.3	104.0	-5.7	601
Chris Sale	124.3	130.4	-6.1	613
JR Ritchie	87.9	95.6	-7.7	670
Grant Holmes	93.3	102.9	-9.6	712
Reynaldo López	110.8	120.8	-10.0	714
Aaron Bummer	94.0	111.5	-17.5	755

ZiPS is confident that Atlanta’s offensive improvements are legitimate, but it’s considerably less so when it comes to the pitching staff. I’ve already made a crack about Pérez, but ZiPS is also skeptical about Bryce Elder’s strides. Overall, it still sees the rotation as risky, though it is more bullish on several of the team’s relievers.

(For those curious, the most improved hitter and pitcher in baseball, from a projection standpoint, is Chase DeLauter and Mason Miller, respectively.)

ZiPS Projections – Team Pitchers Now vs. Preseason

Team	Rest-of-Season ERA+	Preseason ERA+	Diff
Padres	102.9	100.3	2.5
Yankees	104.3	101.9	2.4
Phillies	115.5	113.3	2.2
Brewers	105.5	103.3	2.2
Dodgers	111.4	109.6	1.8
Blue Jays	109.2	107.4	1.8
Mets	105.0	103.3	1.7
Marlins	101.3	99.8	1.5
Angels	95.2	94.0	1.3
White Sox	91.6	90.4	1.2
Pirates	111.5	110.5	1.1
Rockies	96.5	95.5	1.0
Tigers	107.8	107.0	0.8
Cubs	100.2	99.6	0.5
Mariners	104.7	104.5	0.1
Rangers	95.5	95.4	0.0
Twins	102.7	102.8	-0.2
Braves	106.9	107.2	-0.4
Giants	105.2	105.6	-0.4
Guardians	109.4	109.9	-0.5
Reds	96.3	96.8	-0.5
Diamondbacks	106.8	107.4	-0.6
Orioles	101.6	102.3	-0.7
Astros	104.3	105.3	-1.0
Athletics	94.2	95.2	-1.0
Rays	105.1	106.3	-1.2
Cardinals	97.7	99.0	-1.4
Nationals	89.8	91.1	-1.4
Royals	101.0	102.6	-1.6
Red Sox	108.5	110.6	-2.1

It’s kind of funny to see the Phillies so high up on this list, but they have allowed a .349 BABIP over 35 games, a freakishly high number that can’t possibly be sustained. One can see why the Yankees and Padres have been so strong in the early going, though their success is a story for another day.

Is the NL East race actually over? The projections and Betteridge’s law of headlines say no. But it is true that the Braves have flipped the script. It’s not as over for the Mets or Phillies as the vibes indicate, but if they are going to mount a comeback, they better start fairly soon. If not, they’ll quickly run out of calendar.

Source

* This article was originally published here