The Mets’ 2026 season began with such promise. With a remade roster after last year’s disappointing 83-79 finish — new looks in the infield and outfield, a new Opening Day starter to lead their staff, and infusions of youth both in the lineup and in the rotation — they kicked things off by beating up reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes and won three out of their first four games. Though April 7, they were 7-4, including a pair of walk-off wins. They haven’t won since, and already owner Steve Cohen is pleading with fans to stay the course.
First, the Mets dropped the final five games of their second homestand against the Diamondbacks and Athletics, getting shut out twice and scoring more than two runs just once; meanwhile, they gave up seven or more runs three times. Then they flew to Los Angeles to face the two-time defending champion Dodgers, and while they did get a seven-inning, one-run gem from rookie Nolan McLean opposite Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Tuesday night, they lost all three games by a combined score of (gulp) 14-3.
At 7-12, the Mets are tied with the Giants and Rockies for the National League’s worst record. They’re last in the NL East, five games behind the Braves, who have bolted from the gate by winning 12 of 19 despite injuries to a full rotation’s worth of starters, including Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach, as well as catcher Sean Murphy and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. If there’s good news, it’s that the rest of the division has started sluggishly as well, with every team besides the Braves below .500. The Mets are only two games out of second place, not that that adds wins to their ledger.
One doesn’t have to go very far back to recall the Mets’ last eight-game losing streak: September 6–13 of last year. That skid played a major part in their missing the playoffs, because for one thing, they dropped the season series to the Reds within that span, and thus lost the tiebreaker that they would need when the two teams finished 83-79 while vying for the last NL Wild Card spot. It’s not hard to imagine president of baseball operations David Stearns noticing that during that skid, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo were the team’s two weakest hitters. Now, both are wearing other uniforms, part of a larger roster shakeup that included letting Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz walk as free agents.
But why dwell on last year’s postmortem when we’ve got a fresh body on the table? Through 19 games, this is the Mets’ worst start since 2011, when they opened the season 6-13 and limped home with a 77-85 record. They’ve stumbled this badly or worse out of the gate only one other time this millennium, going 7-12 to start the 2004 season and finishing 71-91. While a 7-12 start shouldn’t be fatal to a team’s playoff hopes — particularly a team that as of Opening Day was projected to win 90 games — only one of the 10 teams that’s gone exactly 7-12 through 19 games since the introduction of the current 12-team postseason format in 2022 has rebounded to make the playoffs (the ’22 Guardians), and only one with a worse record (the ’24 Astros, who started 6-13) has done so within that span as well.
The Mets probably aren’t really this bad. Their -14 run differential is actually much better than those of the 8-10 Phillies (-25 runs) and Giants (-24), and slightly better than that of the 10-8 Cardinals (-17). They’re about one win behind both their Pytathagenpat projected winning percentage of .414 and their BaseRuns projected winning percentage of .436. Their win projection for the season still stands at 85, with a 57.1% chance of making the playoffs, though they’ve fallen further than any other team in terms of both projected wins (five) and playoff odds (23.4 points).
Without a doubt the Mets’ biggest problem has been their offense, which has been shutout four times and scored two runs or fewer 10 times; they’ve lost all of those games. Meanwhile, the Reds — whose 4.05 runs per game allowed is just ahead of the Mets’ 4.16 in the NL rankings — have gone 5-4 when they’ve scored no more than two runs. They’re 11-8 overall despite a -13 run differential. That’s quite a contrast.
Both the Mets’ 3.42 runs per game and 78 wRC+ (on an anemic .220/.286/.331 line) rank second-to-last in the NL. They’ve been even worse since April 4, batting .212/.252/.296 for a 57 wRC+, and scored just 2.73 runs per game, a turn that coincides with the loss of Juan Soto, who had hit .355/.412/.516 (159 wRC+) through his first eight games. The slugger strained his right calf while running the bases on April 3, an injury that was expected to sideline him for two to three weeks. Friday marks the two-week point, and the good news is that Soto has not only been able to continue hitting and playing catch since suffering the injury, he began a running program on Tuesday. All indications are that he’ll be back sometime within the next week, whether he goes out on a rehab assignment or gets live at-bats against Mets minor leaguers at Citi Field.
Aside from Soto, only two other regulars have hit at a league-average clip or better, namely catcher Francisco Alvarez (.271/.386/.542, 163 wRC+) and center fielder Luis Robert Jr. (.241/.371/.345, 115 wRC+). Jared Young, who has a 137 wRC+ in 23 plate appearances while spotting at first base and in left field, landed on the IL earlier this week due to a torn meniscus in his left knee — the same fate that befell Mike Tauchman during spring training — that will require surgery; he’s been replaced on the roster by MJ Melendez.
Everybody else who’s taken a plate appearance for the Mets has a wRC+ of 71 or lower. Until Tuesday night, Francisco Lindor hadn’t driven in a run, let alone hit a homer. He got on the board by crushing a middle-middle fastball from Yamamoto on the righty’s third pitch of the game, sending it 402 feet over the right field fence. That ended a 20-inning scoreless drought for the Mets, but it was the only run they scored. Lindor is hitting just .184/.287/.289 (71 wRC+) — and again, that’s the best performance of any hitter besides the ones mentioned above.
Other than Robert, the newcomers Stearns brought in haven’t covered themselves in glory. Bo Bichette (.228/.271/.304, 65 wRC+) and Marcus Semien (.194/.257/.269, 53 wRC+) have been downright terrible; the former has a 43.3% chase rate and just a 1.7% barrel rate. Jorge Polanco (.179/.246/.286, 54 wRC+) has been terrible and has looked even worse while dealing with inflammation in his left Achilles tendon that has limited him to DH duty. While he and the Mets say he won’t need a stint on the IL, one would think a substitute with not one but two working legs might help the cause while giving the 32-year-old switch-hitter a reset.
Elsewhere, rookie Carson Benge, who won the right field job with a strong performance in spring training and then homered in his Opening Day debut, has hit .151/.237/.226 (39 wRC+), though he does have hits in five of his last six games, compared to two in his previous nine. Amid that skid, Stearns maintained the team had not discussed sending the 23-year-old, who during his rapid rise played just 32 games at Double-A and 24 at Triple-A last year, back to the minors. “I think our view is Carson’s going to figure this out. He’s a good player and we’re happy to have him on the team,” said Stearns. “I think we’ve seen, at times, some really good at-bats, and at times, maybe getting a little bit jumpy. Probably trying to do too much, maybe subconsciously trying to do too much.”
With Soto out, and with Robert on a strict load-management regimen to keep him healthy, Benge has played five games in left and three in center. That’s opened up time in right field for Brett Baty, who brought some momentum into spring training after a strong second half and added to his positional repertoire by learning right field and first base. While he’s made eight starts at the former position and three at the latter, he’s been terrible at the plate. Not only has he hit just .203/.197/.288 for a team-low 30 wRC+, he hasn’t even drawn a walk in 61 plate appearances, a performance that might necessitate resurrecting the DiSar Awards. With career highs in both his chase (38.5%) and swing (52%) rates, it’s fair to suggest he’s pressing. Meanwhile, Mark Vientos has gotten the bulk of the first base duty with Polanco DHing. He’s hit just .227/.255/.341 (67 wRC+) and has been making particularly poor contact; his average exit velocity is down 4.2 mph from last year (from 91.4 mph to 87.2), and he’s produced just a 2.9% barrel rate and 35.3% hard-hit rate.
The Mets changed hitting coaches after last season, moving on from co-coaches Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes in favor of Jeff Albert (whose title is “director of major league hitting”) and Troy Snitker. After Wednesday’s loss, Snitker said, “We need to execute better in the game… We need to drive the ball more. We need to swing at pitches that we can do something with… We need to be committed to what we want to swing at, what we’re looking for and just stick with that the whole time, regardless of the situation.”
Some of that sounds like coach-speak boilerplate, but a few things do stand out about the Mets’ collective slump, even while everybody’s numbers are in small-sample territory. For one, there may be an element of bad luck involved, because while the Mets rank 19th in the majors in average exit velocity (88.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (39%), 22nd in barrel rate (6.8%), and 23rd in xwOBA (.309), they’re 29th in wOBA (.281); their -.028 wOBA-xwOBA differential is the majors’ third largest in that direction, ahead of only the Reds (-.029) and Padres (-.031).
Beyond that, a couple of things may connect to what Snitker discussed. Amid the turnover in the lineup, the team has gone from being one of the least chase-prone teams in the majors last year (26.3%, fifth lowest) to one of the most chase-prone (32.5%, fourth highest). Baty has the largest spike in chase rate among the 180 players with at least 400 plate appearances last year and 40 this year at 13.8% (from 24.7% to 38.5%). Bichette (up 8.1%, from 35.2% to 43.3%, Polanco (up 6%, from 26.8% to 32.8%), and Semien (up 5.1%, from 23.5% to 28.6%) are all in the upper quartile as well, while only Robert (-3.7%, from 32.5% to 28.7%) is down more than 0.2%.
Meanwhile, five Mets rank among the bottom 31 in year-to-year decreases in barrel rate using the same cutoffs:
| Player | 2025 Brl% | 2026 Brl% | Dif |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 13.7% | 0.0% | -13.7% |
| Michael Busch | 17.1% | 4.2% | -12.9% |
| Pete Alonso | 18.9% | 6.3% | -12.6% |
| Jo Adell | 17.2% | 4.5% | -12.6% |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 15.0% | 4.4% | -10.6% |
| Lenyn Sosa | 10.4% | 0.0% | -10.4% |
| Cal Raleigh | 19.5% | 10.2% | -9.3% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 13.0% | 4.0% | -9.0% |
| Marcell Ozuna | 11.4% | 2.4% | -9.0% |
| Mark Vientos | 11.5% | 2.9% | -8.6% |
| Spencer Horwitz | 8.2% | 0.0% | -8.2% |
| Josh Jung | 8.2% | 0.0% | -8.2% |
| Wyatt Langford | 14.0% | 6.0% | -8.0% |
| Brenton Doyle | 10.8% | 3.1% | -7.7% |
| Yainer Diaz | 9.6% | 2.0% | -7.6% |
| Matt Chapman | 9.9% | 3.4% | -6.5% |
| Manny Machado | 12.9% | 6.5% | -6.4% |
| Austin Riley | 15.2% | 8.9% | -6.3% |
| Isaac Paredes | 6.3% | 0.0% | -6.2% |
| Bo Bichette | 7.9% | 1.7% | -6.2% |
| Nick Kurtz | 18.3% | 12.1% | -6.2% |
| Rafael Devers | 16.0% | 9.8% | -6.2% |
| Alec Bohm | 6.2% | 0.0% | -6.2% |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 8.5% | 2.4% | -6.1% |
| Jordan Beck | 9.5% | 3.4% | -6.1% |
| Jorge Polanco | 10.3% | 4.4% | -5.9% |
| George Springer | 15.8% | 10.0% | -5.8% |
| J.T. Realmuto | 8.8% | 3.0% | -5.7% |
| Jeremy Peña | 8.2% | 2.7% | -5.5% |
| Brett Baty | 12.8% | 7.3% | -5.5% |
| Luis Robert | 10.1% | 4.80% | -5.3% |
I should point out here that the 40-plate appearance cutoff I used for 2026 in order to consider the same group of players’ chase and barrel rates means I’m basing the latter comparison on anywhere from 34 batted ball events (Vientos) to 59 (Bichette) where the aforementioned Mets are concerned. Not all of these rates (including ones from the other teams above) are based on samples large enough to have started to stabilize. Still, I think this points in the direction of Snitker’s observation, in that the team isn’t making great swing decisions — and it surely doesn’t help that the guy who makes some of the best swing decisions in the game, Soto, has been sidelined.
Given that manager Carlos Mendoza is in the final guaranteed season of his contract (he has an option for next year) and that the Mets do operate in the New York media fishbowl, talk that he’s on the hot seat has already surfaced. That’s hardly fair, particularly given the new mix of players and coaches he’s been handed by Stearns, but after last year’s collapse, it’s a reality. Still, Cohen, Stearns, and Mendoza are all preaching patience instead of panic, and with Soto on his way back, and 143 games still to play, the odds are the Mets are going to be better than this — perhaps much better. But until they are, it could be tough to watch.
* This article was originally published here
Comments
Post a Comment
Pitch Us Your Comments