Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/10/26

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Happy pitchers and catchers day to all, even if your team — those besides the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Giants, Braves, and Red Sox — reports tomorrow or Thursday instead of today

12:02

Jay Jaffe: You can check that information here if you don’t know. https://www.mlb.com/news/spring-training-2026-first-workout-dates

12:03

Jay Jaffe: If you missed it, my latest piece was a tribute to a pair of rubber-armed lefties from the 1960s and ’70s, namely Mickey Lolich (who passed away last week) and Wilbur Wood (who passed away in mid-January). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-300-a-tribute-to-the-ultra-durable-mic…

12:04

Jay Jaffe: A few of you asked/requested I write about Wood but I was swamped by Hall of Fame coverage at the time so couldn’t get to it but… well, Father Time remains undefeated.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Lolich is the third member of the Tigers for whom I’ve written a tribute during my time at FanGraphs after AL Kaline and Bill Freehan. From the 1968 Cardinals I also wrote up Lou Brock, Orlando Cepeda, and Bob Gibson when they passed. The World Series took place before I was born but I’ve got a pretty decent working knowledge of it.

12:07

Jay Jaffe: anyway, next on my plate is a roundup of some smaller transactions as camps open. We’ll see just who that contains when the bell rings. And now, on with the show…

12:07

Bubba: A general fangraphs request as a reader – what are all the projections?  We’re very familiar with ZIPs because of Dan’s work, and with Steamer because that feeds the depth charts.  But there’s The Bat, The Bat X, Oopsy, and ATC.  Who makes them?  What’s the difference between all of these?

12:09

Jay Jaffe: I admit I don’t have a full handle on all of these and how they differ but The Bat ones are done by Derek Carty, OOPSY is done by contributor Jordan Rosenbaum (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yet-another-projection-system-a-brief-intr…) and ATC is done by Ariel Cohen.

12:10

Jay Jaffe: and yes, ZiPS and Steamer are the ones that feed our Depth Charts.

12:11

Hazmat Corntail: Is the opener-follower set up here to stay, and do you foresee its use becoming more prevalent?

12:13

Jay Jaffe: I think if anything opener usage is down, in terms of frequency, relative to when it was first popularized a few years ago, but the strategy is probably with us to stay. Teams are going to do what gives them the best chance to win, not necessarily what’s the most appealing aesthetic presentation of the game, and sometimes there are advantages to be gleaned by doing openers and such.

12:14

Mike: Why do you think the projection systems are so much more positive about the Twins than fans? I mean, even Gleeman thinks they’ll be bad. Not one comment on this site thinks they’ll be close to what the numbers say.

12:17

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t dug into the Twins myself but eyeballing the roster, I’d guess that it’s because the projection systems like the rotation a fair bit (it ranks 11th in our Depth Charts rankings https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP) as they’ve retained both Joe Ryan and Pablo López. Now, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe the Twins could trade one or both, even though they said in December they were keeping them. As the recent departure of team prez Derek Falvey illustrates, this organization appears to be a bit of a mess right now.

12:18

Jay Jaffe: So i can’t blame Twins fans on being even further down on them than the projections suggest. This is not at all gambling advice but I’d guess they finish below our current 80-win projection.

12:18

Potato: So what are your contributions to Prospect week? (hype!)

12:19

Jay Jaffe: My role is staying out of Meg and Matt’s ways as they edit prospect week articles. I’ll actually be skiing in Salt Lake City with my daughter and my father next week.

12:20

Mike Elias: Will I add another starting pitcher, and is it more likely via FA (Gallen, Bassitt, Giolito) or trade (Mayo, J. Jackson + prospects)

12:22

Jay Jaffe: Mike my dude, you are going to be run out of town on a rail if you don’t add starting pitching after last year’s debacle, and it’s entirely possible that by missing out on Framber et al, you’re already cooked. I highly suggest getting your rich-as-hell owner to take a crack on at least one of those free agents. As I wrote i last week’s roundup of free agent starters still available, both Zac Gallen and Justin Verlander have been on the O’s radar https://blogs.fangraphs.com/february-free-agent-watch-frambers-off-the…

12:23

Lionelsmirk: Have the Blue Jays done enough to close the gap between them and LA? I thought they outplayed the Dodgers in the World Series but still ended up losing.

12:26

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there really was a measurable gap between the Blue Jays and Dodgers — the World Series came down to some very random and unforeseen outcomes with things like IKF not getting a jump home, Kiké making an insane double play, Will Klein having the game of his life, Justin Dean making the right decision on a ball stuck in the fence…

12:28

Jay Jaffe: The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox project to be the best teams in the AL East and it’s all within the margins of error. I do think they could beef up that bullpen a bit more but I like most of what they did this winter

12:30

War2D2: Injust refreshed my open browser page and saw the Arizona seasonal banner. Little things like that really make my day. Thank all who are responsible for me!

12:31

Jay Jaffe: That’s our director of engineering Sean Dolinar and his team to thank

12:31

Sirras: Suppose you’re tasked with creating a new Brooklyn MLB team (and let’s hand waive away the territory rights issues). What are some of your ideas for team names/branding given the Dodgers and Giants don’t plan to rebrand?

12:34

Jay Jaffe: I’d look at the names of the amateur era teams from the 1860s, when Brooklyn was the capital of the nascent baseball world — a topic I’ve been a bit immersed in recently since  I was invited to blurb Thomas Gilbert’s Death in the Strike Zone, a bio of James Creighton. His team was the Excelsiors, upstarts who challenged the Atlantics (the best team of the time) for the championship

12:36

Jay Jaffe: Here’s the info about Gilbert’s book, which will publish next month. He’ll be doing a book launch event at Green-Wood Cemetery, which is near me and is the final resting spot for Creighton, Henry Chadwick, and dozens of other 19th c. baseball luminaries.   https://godine.com/products/death-in-the-strike-zone-available-march-2…

12:39

The JAWS Boost: Who are you watching closely this year re: potential Hall of Fame cases? Who has a strong chance to give a big boost to their candidacy this year? (Thinking along the lines of upping a peak score to above 40.0, major milestones, etc.)

12:42

Jay Jaffe: oh boy, there does seem to be a lot of guys. Very interested in Gerrit Cole’s comeback from Tommy John surgery and Zack Wheeler from thoracic outlet surgery; whether Chris Sale has another star-caliber season in him; whether Carlos Correa can get back on track, potential rebounds from Jose Altuve and Nolan Arenado

12:43

Dave Kerwin: Would be interested to hear your thoughts on what may well be the conclusion of Andrew McCutchen’s playing career and where he ranks in the Hall of Very Good, if a HOF case feels very unlikely.

12:44

Jay Jaffe: what i wrote here very much still applies to Cutch https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep… and can also serve as a starter link if anyone wants to read up on most of the guys mentioned in the previous question. Change to …part-i (pitchers and catchers) or …part-ii (infielders) as needed

12:45

Jay Jaffe: only about three typos in that response so i cleaned it up LOL

12:45

mmddyyyy: How do undrafted free agents find homes?

12:47

Jay Jaffe: a lot of it comes down to guys whom teams scouted, whom they liked but weren’t drafted for one reason or another. Might be some cases where being related to somebody in the organization or has local ties can factor in.

12:48

Clownings: What kind of leash will the Dodgers have with Roki Sasaki in the rotation?

12:49

Jay Jaffe: Probably pretty long if he’s serviceable but not terrible, though I’d expect his workload will be closely monitored and come sometime in September he might be bullpen-bound unless the Dodgers see him as one of their four postseason starters. A lot depends upon the health/availability of other starters and we know the Dodgers aren’t going to push anyone too hard during the regular season.

12:50

Jack: Hey Jay, what are your thoughts of the Red Sox this season? I love the pitching, but do you think the offense can get it done?

12:53

Jay Jaffe: They look competitive but i have my questions about their collection of parts for 2B and 3B (Mayer, Durbin, IKF, Gonzalez) and think they should have used their outfield surplus to fortify something else on the roster

12:55

Jay Jaffe: maybe a stronger upgrade in SP (though I liked the adds of both Suarez and Gray) or one of those infield spots. They probably should have signed Bregman but it was not surprising they didn’t given their spending pattern from the last half-decade or so.

12:55

Guest: I find the winter olympics less interesting because the barriers to entry are so high. Like anyone able can run, but how many people could luge, if they even knew about it? Reasonable take, or am I a grump?

12:58

Jay Jaffe: from an egalitarian standpoint it’s not unreasonable — so many of those sports require a ton of equipment and they all require training. But for those of us who grew up in cold-weather environments or merely appreciate watching people slide around on frozen water of some sort, and like the potential for crashing, they’re a ton of fun. Personally, I enjoy watching the Winter Olympics at a level that approximates to my watching the Dodgers in the World Series. And i was much closer to being able to ski a Men’s Downhill or Super-Ga than to being able to hit a curveball.

12:59

Hazmat Corntail: How long of a leash would you give Dave Dombrowski at this point? The lineup construction hasn’t evolved, and the rotation has big questions

1:01

Jay Jaffe: he’s 69 years old and under contract through next season. I probably wouldn’t renew him beyond that and would probably start thinking about the transition, especially if things begin going south this year. I don’t think it has to be abrupt but if it’s clear at the All-Star break that this team is kaput, maybe they do a search for a successor in time for him/her to have input into next winter’s business.

1:01	Still salty about Johan: Do you think the evolving standards on what it means to be a HOF SP will (or maybe it already has) meaningfully affect perception of pitchers of the late 90’s/early 2000’s?

1:02	Jay Jaffe: If we’re talking meaningfully affect perception as in help them get into the Hall of Fame if they slipped through the cracks, that could take decades because of the Era Committee structure. But maybe we should be realizing how underappreciated some of those guys were

1:02

bringbackpologrounds: For HOF-voting purposes, is it reasonable to “mentally adjust” a player’s WAR/JAWS due to their postseason play? For example, David Ortiz was a 55 WAR/45 JAWS player, but with 85 outstanding playoff games, is it fair to treat him as a 59 WAR/49 JAWS player? Just thinking about cases like Seager and Altuve down the road.

1:05

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a perfect prescription for an exchange rate with regards to value and the postseason but I didn’t have trouble thinking of Ortiz as about a ~50ish JAWS guy given the weight of his postseason accomplishments. That’s more complicated with Altuve because of the trash can and such but I suspect hsi non-WAR stats will carry him to Coperstown regardless. We’ll see where Seager’s career takes him.

1:05	Sad braves fan: Spencer Schwellenbach was just announced to start the year on the 60 day IL. Does this increase the chances of Bassitt to ATL, or do you like Waldrep to get the opportunity to stick around?

1:06	Jay Jaffe: oof, a case of elbow schwelling… they were already said to be interested in Bassitt, now they almost certainly have to land him or another one of the top starters available.

1:08	souldougie: What is the earliest point in a player’s career where they may start getting thought of as a potential HOF?

1:10

Jay Jaffe: For me, anything before 7 full seasons is mostly spitballing unless you’re a Juan Soto or a Shohei Ohtani. Once I see where a guy is in terms of WAR7 (the rule of 40 — about 3/4 of eligible guys with a WAR7 of 40 wind up in the Hall), that’s when I start thinking about whter they have a real chance.

1:11	Mike Elias: Ok, I’ll push back on the AL East take. Baltimore is closer to Boston than either of those clubs are to New York and Toronto. Glance at the Sox infield compared to Baltimore’s.

1:14

Jay Jaffe: you’re right, the Orioles belong in the discussion. I don’t see a big gap between the front four teams there because a lot is riding on how quickly and effectively Cole and Ródon are when they return from injuries. But I’d still rather have the Yankees’ rotation than Baltimore’s and don’t think Elias (or maybe Rubenstein) has shown that they’ve absorbed last year’s harsh lesson.

1:15	Pumpsie Green: Barring injuries to others, is there a path to 400ABs for Matt Shaw?

1:17	Jay Jaffe: If he hits, they’ll find a spot for him. I’d think the Ballesteros/Austin platoon at DH — particularly the latter, as a righty like Shaw — is the most likely suspect to lose playing time to Shaw.

1:17	Guest: Do you recommend other books by Thomas Gilbert? I hadn’t heard his name before, but I see that our library has several of his books.

1:19	Jay Jaffe: I absolutely loved How Baseball Happened. Reminded me of Lucy Sante’s Low Life: Lures and Snares of Old New York, a lively account of 19th and early 20th century vice in NYC that I and all my friends read when we moved here in the mid-1990s.

1:20	Jay Jaffe: Gilbert really has a way of bringing the rogues and rowdies of 19th century baseball to life.

1:23	Guest: Do you know much about the difference between Wheeler’s thoracic outlet surgery and the kind that derailed Matt Harvey’s career? From what you hear, is there a lot of confidence in his ability to make a full recovery or is there some uncertainty?

1:25	Jay Jaffe: I know Wheeler had veinous TOS while Harvey had neurogenic TOS (the most common, affecting the nerves), but beyond that I am blanking on specifics

1:25	Max: Obviously it’s just rumors, but Hou seems to be focused on major league talent as a return for Paredes. I’m all for trying to win now, but might they be better off trying to fortify a pretty week farm system?

1:27

Jay Jaffe: Since the Luhnow days, the Astros have never conceded a closing of their competitive window. They missed last year’s playoffs on a tiebreaker so I’m not sure why anyone experts them to start backing off just now. If they’re 10 or 20 games below .500 in July, their thinking might change but i expect them to remain in win-now mode

1:28	Chris: Who do you think makes the Brewers starting rotation? I feel like they have a lot of good young arms.

1:31

Jay Jaffe: They do! I expect Priester, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Patrick to all be part of it, with some allowances for lesser workloads for Woodruff, who hasn’t thrown more than 67 innings in a season since 2022, and Misiorowski, who hasn’t topped 120 innings in a season yet. So Sproat, Gasser, Henderson, and Harrison will probably all get their shots and I’m sure a lot will depend on who’s healthy and effective in the spring. We have Henderson as the 5 right now but this all seems very fluid.

1:32	Guest: Mookie and Freddie… which team’s cap do you think they’re wearing when they enter Cooperstown?

1:32	Jay Jaffe: Dodgers.

1:33	Jay Jaffe: I’m sure there will be discussions regarding both players’ choices but the circumstances of their exits from Boston and Atlanta and their subsequent success in LA suggests where these are headed.

1:33	Guest: Blake Snell has had about as weird a career as a pitcher can have. If he somehow wins a 3rd Cy Young, he’s got to be a Hall of Famer even with a regular season WAR total that falls short of a typical HOF career, right?

1:34	Jay Jaffe: Man, i do not at all know how that one is going to shake out but if there are 2-time winners outside the Hall, there can easily be a 3-timer outside, especially if his career is as spotty as Snell’s

1:34	Guest: At this point, it would take a major change in perception for Stanton to miss out on the HOF. Do you think the Hall forces him to go in as a Marlin, given the vast discrepancy in WAR/stats generated there vs the Bronx? Because you have to figure he will want to go in with a Yankee cap

1:35	Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s going to take a major change for him to miss. I think he really needs 500 homers and some sustained production to get in, and if he does, he’ll likely be doing so as a Marlin because of the MVP award

1:36	Natsfan26: How high are you on Harry Ford? Do you think he’ll be the opening day starter at catcher?

1:38

Jay Jaffe: I like him but i think it’s dicey that he starts the season as the #1 catcher as he’s so new to the organization and has so little major league experience. I’d guess he’s up early season. Brendan Gawlowski’s writeup of the trade that sent him to Washington is worth a read https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-swap-a-ford-for-a-ferreri/

1:38

Sloth: As a fellow Brooklyn resident (& probably loosely your neighbor if you’re near the big cemetery), whenever I see the idea of a third NYC team floated in a space like this— admittedly fan speculation and as non-binding as can be—I always feel the urge to say: No, this city does not need another MLB team, and there is no place in this borough that needs the net negative changes to housing (whether prices, ugly redevelopment, or displacement); traffic; neighborhood architecture; etc. that a new sports team and stadium would bring. (All for private profit dressed in a veneer of “economic development” for the city.)

1:38	Jay Jaffe: I tend to agree and think somewhere in New Jersey would make more sense if there were to be a 3rd team in this market.

1:40	Jay Jaffe: OK folks, it’s time for me to call it. No chat from me next week as I’ll be skiing. Thanks so much for stopping by, and don’t be too hard on the reporters sharing the first crummy photos of spring training this week!

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