Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/8/26

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Greeting friends, enemies, and the possibly neutral who accidentally found their way here with a misclick somehow

12:02

JC: What are your personal expectations for Alonso in Baltimore?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be quite awesome for the first few years. I expect the end won’t be great, but it ought to be a better situation than Chris Davis, and I imagine the front office is realistic about what the abck end could like like

12:04

Lowetide: Hi Dan, I giggled about the ‘refrigerate’ pills tweet yesterday. I’ve done many similar things. Among Misiorowski, Mclean, Yesavage, Bubba and the rest of the young arms emerging now, is there one or two who shine beyond the rest for Zips?

12:05

Dan Szymborski: I mean, the drug seems to be working, but I should probably read things!

12:05

Bubba: I don’t mean to be insensitive, as this is a genuine question, but what makes ZIPS projections worthy of an article per team in a way that Steamer or The Bat is not?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say more worthy than Steamer or The Bat. But FanGraphs employs the ZiPS guy full time, so he can write 30 articles about ZiPS.

12:07

Dan Szymborski: Before I did them, Carson did them. For whatever reason, people like the ZiPS team by teams, most likely because they’re good discussion magnets at relatively slow news times.

12:08

Dan Szymborski: And they’re really good traffic magnets too. The main reason we haven’t revisited the Elegy series in a while is because it delayed the ZiPS pieces, which were always the more popular ones. I stiill hope to revive that series, but more as a group effort, but I have nothing concrete to share

12:08

Freddie: Seeing a lot of Okamoto hype – what do you think are the realistic expectations?

12:09

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS at least has him pretty close to Steamer and The Bat, and that seems a realistic area to me (high two WAR near three)

12:09

Pat: Dan – are you hearing anything re a possible trade by Houston? Seems they have a glut of INF and really could benefit by shedding Walker’s contract or Paredes for prospects.

12:11

Dan Szymborski: I have not. While I talk to most front offices, I probably talk with them about *different* things than a Passan or Rosenthal. Mostly talk analytics and process and the like, rather than news.

12:11

Greg: When will the Pirates officially sign Ryan O’Hearn? It’s now been 16 days since they agreed to the deal! Is something going on?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: IIRC, him and his wife just had a baby and he hadn’t taken the physical yet

12:12

Dan Szymborski: or maybe they’re trying to hash out a dispute over a hidden clause in which half his salary is paid in Primanti coupons

12:12

Guest: Does moving to Wrigley adjust Cabrera’s projection in any meaningful way?

12:13

Dan Szymborski: Nto really

12:13

Brett: Can we get a quick topline of Caissie’s projection since the Cubs list hasn’t published yet and Miami has already come and gone?

12:14

Dan Szymborski:

12:14

Kip: What’s something the elite front offices are doing that rest aren’t?

12:15

Dan Szymborski: The best front offices are the ones that are most able to create *actionable* items from the analytics and communicate it effectively to staff and players

12:15

Dan Szymborski: The vast majority of front offices have quite competent analysts

12:15

Look At This Sotograph: In honor of Tommy Pham, maybe you should label all your articles DanGraphs?

12:15

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if the Dan branding is all that strong

12:15

Frankie: If your NYY, does it maybe make sense to use the Bellinger $ on a top pitcher instead? Essentially what do you prefer Bellinger/SP Trade (with trading JD/Jones) OR Suarez/Valdez + Dominguez/Jones in LF

12:16

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a real pathway, but it should be noted that the money likely isn’t equivalent

12:16

Worm Turner: Any idea what to expect from Matt Shaw in ’26, seems like we had a tale of two seasons, hopefully we will get the latter part. 3rd base is quite dreary this year. Happy New Year!

12:16

Dan Szymborski: Now Caissie yes since he was traded, but the rest of the ZiPS are coming out soon!

12:16

Dr. Curvegood: You already ZiPPed Miami but not Chicago, so how do you typically handle the release for a guy like Owen Caissie?

12:17

Dan Szymborski: He doesn’t get to play in any pretty graphics, but he gets a projection of course

12:18

kwabbit: Should positional adjustments for LF, CF, and RF be applied when using FRV, which evaluates all outfielders together? If I recall correctly, the vast majority of LF/RF had negative FRV in 2025 (as they are being compared to CF) and then had the negative -7.5 run adjustment applied. It feels like double-counting, vs. positional adjustment + DRS/UZR which evaluate relative to others at the position.

12:18

Dan Szymborski: Yes, which we do!

12:20

Dan Szymborski: Notice that Rafaela was +22 FRV but only gets 16.7 fielding in his WAR. While in RF, Tatis was +9 FRV, but the fielding value for WAR was 12.0

12:21

Dan Szymborski: Stuff like this that’s supposedly pegged to zero we automatically balance to 0 automatically

12:21

Jeff: Did the Cabrera/Caissie trade free Kevin Alcantara?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say FREE since their use is different due to different defense capabilities and offensive profile, but it certainly makes it less complicated

12:23

Bardo Bill: ZiPS is pretty low on Bregman – 3.1 WAR. His gimpy 2025 season has me feeling not *great* about how he’ll age, and that a contract over $100 million or so would be an overpay. Yet the contract projections are all around $150-170 million. Think he’ll end up getting way less than expected? Clubhouse Leader vibes only go so far…

12:23

Dan Szymborski: A lot of that is the PA difference – there’s like a 17% diff between the ZiPS playing time and the DC palying time

12:23

Dan Szymborski: I do think there’s significant downside given his age

12:23

James T: With the full lean in on left handed power for the Marlins – does Heriberto Hernandez still have a solid role as a platoon player out there/at DH?

12:23

Dan Szymborski: I think he does – I agree with the depth chart boys here

12:23

Kevin: i know metrics such as WAR and OPS+ adjust for the huge effects of playing half their games at Coors Field for Rockies players. Do those metrics also account for what is now understood to be the “penalty” or difficulty of Rockies’ players having to constantly adjust to going back and forth between sea level and mile high elevation? If not, should they?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: They don’t, but I also have found the hangover effect as relatively small

12:24

Dan Szymborski: something like a couple OPS+ a season for a Rockies player

12:24

Dan Szymborski: it’s one of those things where the effect is real, but people are also greatly overestimating the magnitude

12:25

Slim Chickens: Neto and Masyn Winn debuted around the same time and have ~ season WAR the last 2 years but very different profiles. Do you prefer your SS have the +bat of Neto or the +glove of Winn?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: This is a copout, but it may come down to the groundedness of my pitching staff

12:27

Guest: Hey dan..what is lane Thomas zips (ops+ PA and def) he didn’t make the royals zips list..thx

12:27

Dan Szymborski: 226/299/384, 90 OPS+, 1.1 WAR in 475 PA, -3.1 def in center

12:27

Nils: Not sure if this has been asked in the past, but is it possible to keep team Zips projections pages updated with trades, signings, etc?  Even if all at once after all the teams are released?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: The ZiPS are updated several times after they go live!

12:28

Dan Szymborski: And starting last year, there’s actually a post-spring trianing update the day before the season

12:28

Pat: Who is your breakout pitcher of the year? Similar to, say, maybe a Cristopher Sanchez of 2025.

12:28

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I do an article on that!

12:28

Friends, Enemies, and the Possibly Neutral: “”People either love us or they hate us, or they think that we are OK.” – Mitch Hedberg” – Fangraphs

12:28

Insert Witty Name Here: Definitely an off season question: do you have a litter robot? They’re apparently FSA eligible and mine is coming soon. Super excited.

12:28

Dan Szymborski: I do not. That’s really weird that it’s FSA eligible. Back problems? I have those, but I solve it by having a stool near the litter boxes

12:30

Dan Szymborski: My cats are usually well socialized with each other, so I don’t do the “number of cats + 1” litter boxes and have a bunch of different locations. Just two big litter boxes in the little used back room in the basement and despite as many as 5 cats (3 right now), I haven’t had any stray bathroom problems

12:31

Dan Szymborski: Except for Galileo when he was 18 when he started having irritable bowel syndrome and he ahd trouble going randomly until I got him to the vet and he got daily prednisone

12:31

Pham Phan: Great article about Phamgraphs! In our league, Tommy is a legend and he even has an award named

12:31

Dan Szymborski: It’s been awesome to have Davy Andrews full time with us now

12:32

Dan Szymborski: He has a lot of notgraphs spirit

12:32

Dan: Thoughts on Cabrera-Caissie?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s pretty good for both parties

12:33

bringbackpologrounds: Jose Ramirez seems assured to join the 300/300 club this year. How likely is it that he joins Barry Bonds in 400/400?

12:33

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him right about 1 in 3

12:34

Dan Szymborski: has the 50th of both right around 400 (402 HR, 398 SB)

12:34

Dan Szymborski: They’re nto as tightly correlated as say, a HR/RBI thing

12:34

TomBruno23: What can I tell my fellow BFIB to assuage their fears about the future of these St. Louis Cardinals?

12:34

Dan Szymborski: Still play in the NL Central

12:35

TomBruno23: Went to Camden last summer for Angels weekend series. KIBEN’s Tofu Brah Bun was maybe the best ballpark food I have ever enjoyed.

12:35

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t even realize EKIBEN was at Camden!

12:35

Dan Szymborski: I’ve mostly been to their little Hampden place that’s tucked almost in an alley

12:36

Dan Szymborski: If you’re on 36th in Hampden, they’re in the same chunk of building as Avenue Kitchen (you can see their black bunting outside)

12:37

Dan Szymborski: you just have to go down Roland and go into the alley/parking area back there

12:37

Mr. Burrito: If the Dodgers win the WS again is baseball broken? or will other owners realize putting money on the field can grow their wealth and please their fans?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Not really

12:37

Dan Szymborski: baseball is too random to break very easily

12:37

Andrew: Do you think the Angels will spend on a big agent with the TV deal uncertain and that Rendon contract?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: no

12:38

Big Sally: Singer for an OF bat makes sense for the Reds, right? Who should they target in your opinion? Jo Adell?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: This might be the team that would get one of the biggest boosts from Kyle Tucker, not that they will!

12:39

Dan Szymborski: It would have been fun for them to go after Duran, but who the hell knows if they can meet what the Sox want

12:39

2 parter: Does ZIPS account for home park dimensions? And, (not ZIPS) are home park statistics independent of the caliber of home park line up? Thank you

12:39

Dan Szymborski: Yes, yes

12:39

Dr. Curvegood: If we assume Tucker to Toronto, what do you think is the likelihood that Bichette and Bregman end up one in Boston and one in Chicago?

12:40

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’m particularly insightful here, but I can totally see Brichette in Boston. Not sure about Breggy location if he doesn’t resign though

12:40

Matt: Are you worried that will a lockout will lead to a shortened season in 2027?

12:40

Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:40

Dan Szymborski: After the COVID-lockout corridor, I’m quite sensitive to situations in which my job doesn’t exist for a while

12:41

Doug: Judge took it to ‘never seen this before’ level at age 30. Think there is a similiar monster waiting to be released in Yordan?

12:41

Dan Szymborski: I mean there could be, but what makes Judge special is that people don’t usually go that insane

12:41

danny: is there any reason to still use DRS for anything?

12:41

Dan Szymborski: FRV is better, but I find you actually project FRV slightly better with a tiny DRS weight

12:41

Dan Szymborski: So ZiPS at the MLB level uses about 87% FRV, 14% DRS

12:42

jazzrunner: I don’t understand how HoF voters look at the steroid issues of 90s and 00s.  This is because:  1) they were legal when players started to use them early in the decade 2) there was a crazy economic incentive to use them (millions of dollars) 3) most players used them 4) MLB enforcement was lax especially in the beginning 5) analysts can still evaluate their performance versus their peers.   Finally, as a thought experiment, if you gave a bunch of saber experts an extra $3M a year to do coke or some other illicit substance which would dramatically improve their ability to forecast…what percentage would take them?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: I think it comes down to philosophical priors, since the Hall’s feelings have been muddy and inconsistent

12:43

Dan Szymborski: I consider PEDs a rule-based thing; breaking a rule is the infraction, not the performance-enhancing aspect

12:43

Dan Szymborski: like corked bats or spitballs

12:44

Dan Szymborski: and even though I’m far from convinced on the *efficacy* — there’s no pattern of PED-caught players having different aging/projection patterns, either before or after being caught — I totally buy that the mens rea of cheating is different from efficacy (like corked bats)

12:45

Dan Szymborski: so for ME, it *is* something I weight, under the character clause (which based on early Hall history and the discussions of the wording, I interpret as being baseball-linked character, not general character)

12:45

Dan Szymborski: But not as an in/out binary

12:45

Dan Szymborski: If I thought Ryan Braun was an uncertain Hall of Famer on the merits, it would “break the tie” for me negatively

12:46

Dan Szymborski: Similarly, I do consider the trashcan stuff as an attempt to cheat, but again, something to be weighed, not a binary thing

12:46

Dan Szymborski: (and I’m even less convinced about the efficacy there)

12:47

Dan Szymborski: If a player confessed to being tricked and told something was a steroid, but it was just tic tacs, I would count that negatively against them

12:47

Time Traveling Stowaway: Hi Dan! Happy 2026. When are you going to with your brand spanking new time machine?

12:47

Dan Szymborski: It’s safer for the timeline if I just blackmail people to NOT use the time machine and change their history

12:48

bringbackpologrounds: How long can Lindor stick at SS? It’s become so grueling in recent years. I believe Bogaerts and Betts were the oldest full-timers (both turned 33 in Oct), and they’re only one year older than Lindor.

12:48

Dan Szymborski: He’s still good enough that quite a while remaining

12:50

Holiday Foodstuffs: What was the best meal that you ate over the holidays?

12:51

Dan Szymborski: My mom left me a big box of chicken milanese at my house when I wasn’t home

12:51

Dan Szymborski: Mom never really cooked all that much, but she is a master at double breading things, and with no flour either.

12:53

Dan Szymborski: I did make königsberger klopse which I really enjoy, but I used too much allspice and not enough anchovy this time, so it wasn’t one of my better batches

12:53

Lord Thunder: How much longer does CJ Abrams have before he’s moved off SS?

12:53

Dan Szymborski: Probably when he’s a FA

12:54

TomBruno23: Papermoon Diner was our favorite spot to eat in Baltimore during our visit. Felt like I was living in Pee-Wee’s Playhouse.

12:54

Dan Szymborski: There’s also that feeling that something is going to crash from the ceilign and kill you

12:54

Kip: Have you gotten into Elden Ring?

12:54

Dan Szymborski: Nto so much

12:54

War2D2: Agreed on Davy being a great addition. He would have fit right in on NotGraphs.

12:55

johnny5alive: I feel like you were always higher on Caissie than most prospect folks (at least he was consistently in your ZiPS top 100 prospects).  Does the shift from Chicago to Miami help or hurt him?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: It’s pretty neutral

12:55

Rockies POBO for a day: If you were running the rox, how would you build an effective pitching staff to compete with the rest of the division?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think it’s overthought because of a couple of notable implosions

12:55

Dan Szymborski: first build a pitching staff that cna compete anywhere

12:56

Dan Szymborski: the 2010s Rockies did have some pretty good finds, do they squandered them with incompetence

12:57

Hundreds, Possibly Thousands: What happened to the UZR data on player pages for 2025? I have spent a lot of time looking at Colton Cowser’s position-specific defensive grades recently, and UZR seems to disagree a little bit (but otherwise, it really doesn’t look at bad as people say)

12:57

Dan Szymborski: UZR’s no longer being done, I believe

12:57

Worst Owner in Baseball: How’s this list of worst owner in baseball and who takes the ultimate prize: John Fisher (A’s), Jerry Reinsdorf (CWS), Bob Nutting (Pirates), Arte Moreno (Angels), Dick Monfort (Rockies). Prior to this offseason I would have said Fisher without much hesitation, but the Tyler Skaggs wrongful death trial made has made me reconsider whether it’s Moreno.

12:57

Dan Szymborski: I still think Fisher is the worst, since he basically tried to kill it in a town

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Then Nutting/Moreno

12:58

Dan Szymborski: and Castellini

12:58

Dan Szymborski: Monfort and Reinsdorf are more in the “backwards old school” tier of bad ownership

12:58

Hundreds, Possibly Thousands: Charmery, Taharka Bros, or Bmore Licks?

12:58

Dan Szymborski: Wrong person, I’m not really into ice cream

12:59

Dan Szymborski: I’ve bene to the Charmery and seen Taharka (think I had it at R house?) but ice cream is just a take it or leave it thing

12:59

Guest: Do you think baseball is solved? Seems like front offices mostly think pretty much the same

12:59

Dan Szymborski: Baseball isn’t, but offense largely is

12:59

GA Blood: If you did have a time machine and you could travel to the future and get all MLB stats for the rest of history, how do you think that information would impact ZiPS? Or would you just report the stats every year and let people marvel at your prognostication skills.

1:00	Dan Szymborski: I’d probably do what I could do make money off of it and then just retire

1:00	Dan Szymborski: If I knew the future, it would make predicting it far less interesting

1:02

War2D2: I’d never heard of chicken milanese before, but looking at the recipes it’s basically schnitzel, which is what we do for Christmas Eve dinner. My wife’s family has Austrian roots, so schnitzel with noodles (spaezle) is a tradition. I’m mostly Lithuanian, so I do Lithuanian pierogi (which my family called kletskys or griebys depending on the filling, but near as I can tell are called something else in actual Lithuanian). Either way, not a lot of greenery or fiber at our holiday dinners.

1:02	Dan Szymborski: I had two German grandparents (one on each side)

1:03

Dan Szymborski: the one that I mostly ate food from was my mother’s mom, who was from Bremerhaven and an art student in Paris when WWII broke out (she was a secretary for Dönitz and my grandfather met her when she was a translator for the Brits during the war trials). She didn’t actually make a ton of German dishes and I grew up mostly with French cooking

1:04	Thornton: If the Dan branding was strong, it would be ‘Danding’

1:04	Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for another week, as I have Padres ZiPS to finish!

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for comign all!

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* This article was originally published here