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The Brewers, the Rays, and the Pumping of Tires

MILWAUKEE — You all know the theoretical concept of a replacement-level player. I suspect I’m not the only one who associates that concept with a specific person: The guy who’s continuously mediocre despite repeated exposure to big league competition. The longer he sticks around, the more chances he gets, the more I catch myself thinking, “Why? Can’t they at least try to find someone better?” Source * This article was originally published here

Effectively Wild Episode 2548: Bullpen Blame

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon . Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Ben Clemens banter about World Series roster and rotation decisions, the Fall Classic through a “styles make fights” lens, whether travel days are really rest days, and more. Then (31:50) Ben C. delivers a guest Stat Blast about whether bullpen games are really risky because the more pitchers you use, the more likely you are to run into a reliever who “doesn’t have it” that day, and Ben L. Blasts about players who played for three playoff teams in the same season and players who played for a few World Series winners in a row without appearing in the postseason. Finally (1:02:33), Ben and Meg banter about Angels turnover, Yankees non-turnover, Shohei Ohtani ’s two-way future, NPB postings, a KBO breakout, a new baseball video game and K-drama, and a Yandy Díaz nickname. Audio intro : Andy Ellison, “ Effectively Wild Theme ...

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 2 of 11

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market. In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections. Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of infielders, including one with a ...

Yandy Díaz Is the Most Complete Hitter in the World Series

The World Series — our annual signifier of another season smoked to its filter — is always a culmination of the sport’s beauty. Teams get rewarded for playing a winning brand of baseball all throughout October, managers are vindicated in all of the micro-decisions that got them there, and front offices can comfortably rest their heads at night knowing their systems and philosophies weren’t… Source * This article was originally published here

Aaron Ashby Is Creating Bullets for the Brewers

Runs are hard to come by during the postseason, in part because of the outsized impact of cooler weather and overpowering relief pitching. So far this fall, no pitcher has done a better job of keeping runs off the board than Aaron Ashby. Working in a multi-inning role that recalls a bygone era of bullpen firemen, the 28-year-old lefty has delivered 12 1/3 scoreless innings for the Brewers thus… Source * This article was originally published here

What’s the Guardians’ Hard-Hit Rate Hit Rate?

If you’ve been following the postseason closely, you probably know why every Guardians player celebrates a single by turning to their dugout and flashing their teammates a thumbs down. “When a Guardians hitter notches a single, he stands on first base, peers toward the dugout and flashes either two thumbs up or two thumbs down, depending on how hard he struck the ball.” That’s how The Athletic’s… Source * This article was originally published here

Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 18, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately. Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked. Source * This article was originally published here

FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 17, 2026

One of the great underrated joys of baseball is a competitive best-of-seven series that ends in five games. Think the 2024 World Series, when the only game the Dodgers lost was also the only game that was decided by more than three runs. The series scoreboard suggests that it was lopsided, but the individual games were absolutely riveting. Even more overlooked is the enthralling four-game sweep… Source * This article was originally published here

Breaking Down Jake Bauers’ 11-Pitch Masterclass

Whether or not you tuned in for Game 3 of the NLCS between the Brewers and the Dodgers, you surely know by now that the highlight of the game belonged to Jake Bauers. After working a back-breaking 12-pitch walk that hastened Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s early departure from Game 2, Bauers put the Brewers ahead with a homer in the seventh inning on the 11th pitch he saw from Blake Snell. Ben Clemens… Source * This article was originally published here

Postseason Managerial Report Card: Will Venable

Every October, FanGraphs grades each playoff manager. We focus on their in-game decisions, because a lot of the most important parts of the job – things like keeping players ready to go and making sure relievers understand their role so they know when they might be deployed – aren’t always visible to us from the outside looking in. A lot of what managers do never reaches the public eye, so these… Source * This article was originally published here

Members-Only Game Thread: LCS – Oct 12, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the LCS games today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Dodgers play the Brewers and the Guardians play the Rays! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately. Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked. Source * This article was originally published here

FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 10, 2026

A few weeks ago, I led the mailbag with some quick thoughts on the thrilling AL Central race between the White Sox and the Guardians. When I wrote that introduction, Cleveland had just won two of its final three regular-season games against Chicago, and the two teams were tied atop the division. Neither club was all that good, but each was intriguing in its own way. The White Sox, of course, had… Source * This article was originally published here

The 10 Best Division Series of All Time, Ranked

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports On the heels of an utterly spectacular Division Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres — a walk-off , a home run robbery, two paternity leaves , oh my! — I found myself chewing on two pervasive thoughts. One: that was a hell of a series, and it really deserved a fifth game. Two: how many other Division Series have been on that level? Since the Division Series’ true birth in 1995 (the 1981 strike led to a one-off set of Division Series that autumn, which then went dormant until the next strike made them permanent) we’ve now had 128 of them, with 41 ending in sweeps and 39 going all the way to a do-or-die Game 5, with the ongoing White Sox-Guardians series becoming the 40th. While early-round series in any sport are bound to have some impossibly stacked rosters beating the brakes off ahead-of-schedule teams that are just happy to be cashing playoff bonuses, the history of the Division Series is also rich with indelible postseason memo...

Members Only Game Thread: LDS – Oct 7, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the LDS games today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch four baseball games for the last time all year! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately. Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked. We are going to open the chat up at 3:30 PM ET and it will remain open until the final out of the Brewers-Padres game. Source * This article was originally published here

Members Only Game Thread: ALDS – Oct 5, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALDS Game 2. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the White Sox at Guardians and Yankees at Rays. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately. Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked. We are going to have Members Only Game Threads for the rest of the postseason. The next one will be tomorrow, October 6 at 6:00PM. Source * This article was originally published here

The Brewers and Padres Made the Entire Game Out of High-Leverage Innings

Michael McLoone-Imagn Images The Brewers earned a 3-2 victory over the Padres in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday. With this year’s presumptive Cy Young winner starting for the Brewers and a former Cy Young winner (and still an above-average starter) going for the Padres, a low-scoring affair was not a surprising outcome. Still, the game script didn’t exactly play out as anticipated. Instead, the contest took on a late-inning feel almost from the beginning, and with both emotions and the leverage index consistently running high, perhaps the best way to tell the story of Game 1 is via reactions sourced from one of the most emotive players in either dugout — Milwaukee outfielder Sal Frelick . The Frelick shown above was struggling to process an unusual double play that he initiated during last year’s NLCS, but that confused sentiment also applies to the experience of watching Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski allow three consecutive singles during the second inning on Saturday. In o...

Welcome to the 2026 Arizona Fall League: Scouting Prep and Preview

Jarlin Susana Photo: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports The 34th Arizona Fall League season opens today with three games staggered across the Phoenix metro area. There are future stars in the Fall League every year, as well as many more workmanlike players who are competing for a 40-man roster spot on next year’s club. It’s a wonderful league for teams to develop and scout prospects because of the cross section of talent it tends to include (there are usually lots of good position player prospects), its timing (which allows players who were injured during the regular season to catch up on reps), and its structure (which allows for six weeks of steady looks). Teams almost always take the AFL seriously and send players who they want to see more of, or want to test. Being on the roster is, on its own, a flare for people like me who are looking for future big leaguers. It’s an indication that a player is worth paying attention to from a scouting standpoint even if I didn’t know the guy’s name un...